Yankees vs. Athletics MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Backing Big Underdog is Right Choice (Friday, August 26)

The Yankees have struggled in recent weeks, as they have had injuries both in their lineup and pitching staff.

New York got back on track Thursday night — as Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup — and it responded by scoring 13 runs.

The Athletics continue to struggle, as they have the worst record (46-80) and run differential (-153) in the American League entering play Friday.

The Yankees understandably come in as huge favorites in this game, but who will ultimately get the job done and take home the victory?

One of the big reasons the Yankees are so heavily favored here is starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. He has a 3.41 ERA on the season and a 3.79 ERA on the road. Cole’s xFIP is 3.43, and he has a 31% K%.

Six hitters in the Athletics’ projected lineup have at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Only Seth Brown and Shane Langeliers have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Cole has allowed a .161 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .163 ISO to right-handed hitters.

Oakland is dead last in all of baseball, averaging 2.84 runs per game at home this season.

The Yankees haven’t had many good young pitchers in their minor league system recently, but JP Sears was certainly one of them before New York traded him to Oakland.

Sears had a 1.67 ERA over 11 games (nine starts) at the Triple-A level with the Yankees this year.

So far in the major leagues with New York and Oakland, Sears has a 1.93 ERA over 10 games (five starts). Sears isn’t going to have an ERA under 2.00 forever, but he’s been solid in his three starts for the Athletics, completing five innings and allowing two or less runs in each game.

Sears’ xFIP is 5.03, and he has a 16% K%.

Aaron Judge, Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres and Josh Trevino all have ISOs above .190 against left-handed pitching this season. Sears has allowed just a 0.96 ISO to right-handed batters.

The Yankees are second in all of baseball, averaging 5.15 runs per game on the road this season.

The model I use hates this line and has it as pretty close to efficient.

Intuitively, I’m thinking the Yankees win this game, but at -240 on the moneyline, they have to win this game more than 70% of the time for this to be a good bet.

Taking Oakland against the Yankees is probably also not a good bet — at least not a comfortable one — but I think it’s a necessary one in this spot.

I have Oakland at +200 on the moneyline at DraftKings.

Pick: Athletics ML +200