Scouting report: Purdue basketball vs UConn; Prediction for NCAA ...

Show Caption

Hide Caption

Purdue basketball: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Zach Edey on UConn

Purdue plays defending NCAA champion UConn in Monday’s national championship game.

GLENDALE, Ariz. − Purdue basketball is in unfamiliar territory.

Not because the Boilermakers haven't been in the NCAA title game since 1969.

But because the UConn Huskies are trying to repeat and are on a historic run through this postseason.

And for the first time this season, Purdue is the underdog.

"A lot of our guys on our team, we haven't had this," Zach Edey said. "As a team, everybody's kind of counting us out right now. A lot of our guys are accepting that. A lot of our guys are facing that."

Connecticut opened as a 6.5-point favorite, per Bet MGM.

Historic tournament

Connecticut and Purdue have been the best two teams in college basketball all season and doubled down by being the best two teams in the NCAA Tournament.

UConn has defeated Stetson, Northwestern, San Diego State, Illinois and Alabama by an average of 25 points. That's a historic pace. UCLA's undefeated 1966-67 team that outscored its four opponents by an average of 23.8 per game owns the NCAA Tournament record for average margin of victory for a national champion.

Right behind UConn and UCLA? Purdue this season, winning its five games by an average of 19.6 points.

More: Matt Painter is at Purdue because of IU legend Jimmy Rayl, and Painter has never forgotten

Names to know

For Purdue, which has used the same starting lineup all 38 games this season, it starts with Edey (24.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 blocks, 62.5% FG).

But Purdue's other four starters and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Mason Gillis (6.7 points, 3.9 rebounds) all have solid numbers: Braden Smith (12.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.6 steals), Lance Jones (11.9 points, 2.0 assists), Fletcher Loyer (10.6 points, 2.0 assists) and Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.4 points, 4.1 rebounds).

More: Fletcher Loyer got caught stealing a chair, then Purdue basketball's guard cashed in on it

UConn has five players averaging double figures in points: Tristen Newton (14.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists), Cam Spencer (14.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals), Alex Karaban (13.5 points, 5.0 rebounds), Donovan Clingan (13.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.5 blocks) and Stephen Castle (11.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists).

Clingan and Edey are two of the nation's top interior players. Newton and Smith are two of the nation's top guards.

Stat to unpack

Purdue's 3-point shooting will be where the Boilermakers have an edge. Though UConn averages more made 3s per game (8.6 to Purdue's 8.3), the Boilers shoot almost 5% better from beyond the arc than their national title counterparts.

More: 5 highlights from Matt Painter's media session: On Virginia comparison, Zach Edey and more

Purdue basketball vs. UConn prediction

Play like it did offensively against North Carolina State in the Final Four and Purdue will get run out of the building.

Braden Smith won't have a half as bad as he did Saturday night. Maybe ever again. It'll take a near flawless effort from Purdue. But this game was the one it eyed all year.

At this point, why not?

Prediction: Purdue 95, UConn 91.

Sam King covers sports for the Journal & Courier. Email him at sking@jconline.com and follow him on Twitter and Instagram @samueltking.