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Tropical Storm Watches, Warnings issued as Potential Tropical ...

Tropical Storm Watches Warnings issued as Potential Tropical
Timeline and impacts on the tropical Wave moving toward Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula, from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, as the now Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 approaches the state, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.

What has changed?

Nothing other than the anticipation that the wave will develop a circulation over the weekend so the name has been changed from Invest 97 to Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. As of Friday afternoon, there is little change with the tropical wave located over southeastern Cuba. Potential Tropical Cyclone 4, is causing 25-30 mph winds over the southeastern Bahamas as it tracks westward across Cuba on Friday.

Thunderstorms in the tropical wave have not organized and no closed circulation center exists to give this a tropical cyclone designation. This wouldn’t happen while the wave moves across Cuba, however, it could technically become a tropical cyclone over the Straits of Florida Saturday evening or Sunday which is why the National Hurricane Center is now making it a Potential Tropical Cyclone 4.

Models have come in better agreement tracking closer to Florida, which avoids a track farther west out into the Gulf with less potential to linger over the Gulf or strengthen into a hurricane. A turn back into the Atlantic next week appears likely.

Two reconnaissance plans will fly near Long Island Bahamas at 4 p.m. to look for any circulation that would designate it a Tropical Depression. Later this evening NOAA will fly a P-3 to collect radar data near Andros Island to improve tonight’s forecast model accuracy.

Models come in agreement with Florida landfall.

Impacts for Jacksonville

We will have a nice beach day on Saturday as the wave will be approaching the Florida Keys with 20-25 mph gusts and frequent showers by Saturday evening.

Sunday evening should be rainy with breezy conditions and potentially heavier rain into Monday.

The GFS ensemble model keeps the intensity under 40 mph as it tracks into Florida somewhere near the Keys to the west Coast of Florida on Sunday. Those black lines are tropical depression force which is not much concern for causing damage. The window to intensify will be short since it will spend much of its time over Cuba and Florida. If it tracks toward the big bend it may become Tropical Storm Debby (green lines) due to more time over the Gulf water.

GFS Ensemble models with intensity colors.

I see no ideal setup for rapid intensification into a hurricane due to moderate shear and slightly less than adequate mid-level moisture. However, intensity models do bring it to hurricane strength once it emerges into the Atlantic offshore the Carolinas Tuesday when the threat will be long gone from the First Coast.

SHIP and GFS (AVNI) intensity forcast models keep it as a tropical storm until it pushes into the Atlantic after crossing Florida.
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