NASCAR Talladega 2022 odds, start time, TV channel: Model's surprising GEICO 500 picks, predictions, best bets

There have already been more surprise winners than usual to open the 2022 NASCAR schedule. Drivers will now turn their attention to Talladega Superspeedway for the 2022 GEICO 500 on Sunday. NASCAR at Talladega is one of the most high-variance events in the sport, creating an intriguing dynamic for bettors. Should you target long shots with your 2022 GEICO 500 bets and NASCAR Talladega picks? The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on FOX (stream now on FuboTV).

Ryan Blaney has won two of his last five starts at Talladega, one reason why he's the 10-1 co-favorite with Joey Logano in the latest 2022 GEICO 500 odds. Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott are both listed at 12-1 in the 2022 NASCAR Talladega race field, while there are a handful of other drivers like Kyle Larson and Bubba Wallace at 14-1 and 15-1. Before scouring the 2022 GEICO 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR at Talladega picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 12-7 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then last month it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR Talladega 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 GEICO 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 GEICO 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Talladega odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Almirola has been excellent at this track, cracking the top 10 in eight of his last 11 starts, including five finishes in the top five.

He picked up a win at Talladega in the fall of 2018 and finished in third in June 2020. This is not the only superspeedway track he's had success at, as he finished fifth in the Daytona 500. SportsLine's model has identified Almirola as an excellent wagering option in the NASCAR at Talladega starting grid.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 GEICO 500 starting grid. Despite 47 career NASCAR Cup Series victories, the 41-year-old is still looking for his first championship and it's been a difficult start to 2022 outside of a win at the Toyota Owners 400 in Richmond.

Hamlin has finished outside the top 10 in his other eight starts this season and is currently 23rd in the NASCAR standings. Despite the win, Hamlin hasn't been in the top 20 in the standings at any point this year, while 31 of the 40 laps he's led this season came in Las Vegas.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Talladega picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Talladega odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the GEICO 500 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 GEICO 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season. 

2022 GEICO 500 odds

Ryan Blaney 10-1Joey Logano 10-1Denny Hamlin 12-1Chase Elliott 12-1Kyle Larson 14-1Austin Cindric 14-1Kyle Busch 15-1Chase Briscoe 15-1Brad Keselowski 15-1Bubba Wallace 15-1William Byron 17-1Kevin Harvick 18-1Alex Bowman 18-1Aric Almirola 20-1Tyler Reddick 25-1Kurt Busch 25-1Chris Buescher 25-1Christopher Bell 28-1Martin Truex Jr. 30-1Michael McDowell 30-1Ross Chastain 35-1Austin Dillon 35-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35-1Cole Custer 40-1Harrison Burton 50-1Daniel Suarez 50-1Justin Haley 50-1Erik Jones 60-1Daniel Hemric 75-1Todd Gilliland 100-1David Ragan 125-1Ty Dillon 125-1Corey Lajoie 125-1Noah Gragson 200-1Landon Cassill 200-1Greg Biffle 500-1Cody Ware 1000-1JJ Yeley 1000-1BJ McLeod 1000-1