5 Offseason Thoughts on the Pacers

1. They really want to keep Siakam…

This is by far the biggest and most important storyline for the Pacers this offseason. Before any other move can be made the team will have to decide on Siakam, and quite frankly, I don’t think there’s much to decide.

The team has been consistent that they want Siakam back. Rick Carlisle told us on The Wake Up Call this week that his first offseason priority is to recruit Siakam to stay. Of course, the recruitment shouldn’t be too difficult since the Pacers can offer more money/years than anyone else.

Remember that part of the trade with Toronto was the team inheriting Siakam’s “Bird rights”, meaning they could offer him a 5-year deal worth up to 30% of the salary cap. That would put a maximum deal somewhere in the range of 5 years for 245 million, while any other team can only offer 4 years for 182 million.

The only question is do the Pacers want to commit to 5 years to a player already in his 30’s and at such a price? And what is Siakam’s true value if no one wants to offer him the max?

2. Is Toppin the odd man out?

While Siakam is the most important decision the next one to watch is Obi Toppin. And unlike Siakam, I have no idea what’s going to happen here. Toppin is set to be a restricted free agent, meaning if a team agreed to an offer sheet with him the Pacers would have the chance to match it (think of Deandre Ayton a few years ago). 

So, what is Toppin’s worth to the Pacers and furthermore, how much is too much? 

And then the bigger question is if you can have Toppin AND top 10 draft pick Jarace Walker in the same rotation. At some point Walker has to play and I’ve been on record that next year I expect him to be a major part of the roster/rotation. Does Toppin reupping mean less Walker? Or is it the more the merrier? 

3. What about Nembhard and Mathurin?

What exactly is the plan going forward for Andrew Nembhard and Benedict Mathurin?

Nembhard found his way into the starting lineup after Christmas as the team tried to find better defensive options. He had a solid season, but I surely didn’t think of him as the long-term option alongside Haliburton. Next to Tyrese he played more of the shooting guard but in the playoffs found success as the point guard. So, going forward is he a starter and, if so, at what position?

And then we get to Mathurin. It was unfortunate he got injured in early March and missed the final 3 months of the season. But before he was injured it was clear that he wasn’t quite ready to be a starter. Will he be next season? And don’t the Pacers need that to be the outcome? I can’t see Mathurin settling into a bench role for the third straight season. At some point he has to make “the jump” in his game. 

The good thing for the Pacers is Mathurin is only making about 16 million over the next 2 years and then would be a restricted free agent in 2026-27. And Nembhard is even cheaper at about 4 million over the next 2 seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2026-27. The Pacers have lots of time but I’d still love to know the plan for both going forward.

4. The draft is coming…

The NBA draft is coming up June 26-27 and I’m interested in how aggressive the Pacers will get. I could see them banking their 3 second round picks (36, 49, 50) to move back into the first round. Also, at this point, I almost feel as if it’s quantity over quality. With so many young pieces on the roster (and someone like Jarace Walker waiting in the wings) you wonder how many more “projects” the Pacers want.

Something tells me the Pacers stay aggressive around draft time. 

5. Raised Expectations

You wanted expectations, well, ya got ’em. After making the eastern conference finals there are going to be serious expectations next year. Furthermore, I’m fascinated how other teams view the Pacers. This season they were the scrappy underdogs, a young team with an emerging star. But next year they’ll enter with a target on their back. No longer will they be underdogs. 

In fact, we even started to see it this year with current and former players calling Haliburton and the Pacers “front runners”. At some point the hunter becomes the hunted and I think next year will show that to be true for the Pacers.