Brad Cox disappointed but not dismayed by close call with Essential Quality in first Derby

By the time he returned to Churchill Downs on Sunday morning, Brad Cox had watched the replay of Saturday's Kentucky Derby four times. He had studied the statistics captured by Trakus’ saddle towel sensors and arrived at a melancholy conclusion.  

The Louisville trainer’s beaten favorite, Essential Quality, had run farther and faster than did Derby winner Medina Spirit. He had covered, on average, nearly six more inches for every second of the race. But bumped just beyond the starting gate and covering more ground by running too far from the rail, the 2-year-old champion had finished fourth in the preeminent race for 3-year-old thoroughbreds.

To summarize: Great talent, tough trip.

“It’s harder to watch every time,” Cox said. “I said all week if we had the racing luck, we were the horse to beat. If we had the racing luck, I thought we could definitely win it. We ran big, but we could have had a little bit better trip. It’s nobody’s fault there. We just could have had better racing luck in a (19-horse) field.”

He was standing near the west end of Barn 22, recounting his first Run for the Roses while shielding his youngest son, Brodie, from the stable goat, Mr. Man. Double-checking Tarkus’ calculations on his cell phone, Cox figured the additional 68 feet Essential Quality had run compared to Medina Spirit equated to about 8 ½ lengths. The difference between first and fourth had been a little more than one length.

More: What happened to the 2021 Kentucky Derby favorite, Essential Quality?

Cox’s less accomplished entry, Mandaloun, had finished second, only half a length behind Bob Baffert’s surprise winner. And though he was disappointed to have come so close with two colts in the race he covets most, Cox was nowhere near dismayed.

“It was a great experience,” he said. “I wouldn’t change anything we’ve done with either one of our horses. I think they were both prepared very well. If we’re back in this position, I feel like we’ll be able to succeed, cause I think both horses ran winning races.”

Even the most successful trainers deal with defeat almost daily. None of the 10 trainers whose career earnings exceed $150 million has won more than 25% of his career races. With 1,568 victories in his first 6,182 races, Brad Cox trainees also show a 25% win rate.

Still, simply contending in the most prestigious races has its compensations. Mandaloun earned $600,000 for finishing second Saturday; Essential Quality $150,000 for fourth. Their performances pushed Cox past the $10 million mark in 2021 earnings, second only to Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Then, barely 20 minutes after the Derby ended, Fulsome added another $180,000 to Cox’s total by winning the Oaklawn Stakes.

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Baffert, who lost his first Derby by a nose and has now won seven of them, said Cox’s horses did as much as he could have asked.

“They ran; they showed up,” Baffert said. “They were all right there. He should be proud of that effort. It’s disappointing, especially when you have the favorite. I know what it feels like. It’s worse when you don’t show up as a favorite. I’ve had that happened to me, also.

“... But his horses ran. It’s just they came up short. As a trainer, you just hope when they turn for home you have a reason to root.”

Resilience is a prerequisite. By the time the defeated Derby horses returned to their stalls Saturday evening, their connections were already contemplating next steps.

Wary of the two-week turnaround before the second leg of the Triple Crown, Cox is unlikely to send either Essential Quality or Mandaloun to the Preakness.

“It’s hard to say right now,” he said. “First and foremost, I want to see how the horses come out of this in the next three or four days. Obviously, I’ll take a look and see who’s running (in the Preakness). And, obviously I’ll look at our long-term goals; what we’re trying to accomplish with them for the rest of the year and as older horses.”

As a son of Tapit, sire of three Belmont Stakes winners, Essential Quality can be expected to resurface in the last of the Triple Crown races. Mandaloun, meanwhile, has a pedigree that probably indicates a shorter next stop than the 1 ½-mile “Test of Champions.”   

More: How Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez snagged back-to-back Derby wins, fourth overall

After that, the process starts all over again with a new crop of Derby hopefuls and the nation’s trainers all pointing toward the same prize.

“You have to believe there’s a Derby with your name on it,” Brad Cox said. “Hopefully, there are multiple Derbys with your name on it.  Unfortunately, these colts don’t have another chance.”

Tim Sullivan: 502-582-4650, tsullivan@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @TimSullivan714