Raiders over/unders: Predicting stat lines for Josh Jacobs, Jimmy ...

We’re nine days away from the Las Vegas Raiders’ season opener. It’s time for over/unders!

We kept it pretty straightforward. No overs on 1,000 sideline TV shots of Jimmy Garoppolo. No unders on how many Raiders fans at home games against teams that travel well.

Every team and its fan base should feel better about their team’s chances after training camp and preseason — it’s the reason we have training camp and the preseason. And the Raiders have some positive energy, thanks to Garoppolo and first-round pick Tyree Wilson coming back from injuries, Josh Jacobs showing up and the depth of the defensive line. And it seems like Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed are optimistic as well. Oh, wait until the end …

Context: Garoppolo has averaged 235.9 passing yards and about 1.5 touchdowns per game over the last four seasons. Over that same stretch, he has been available for an average of 12.5 games per season, which would equate to 2,949 yards and 18.75 touchdowns.

Tafur: Over

Derek Carr had 3,522 yards and 24 touchdowns and was sent packing, so these both better go over. The only reason they wouldn’t is if the injury bug again bites Garoppolo, and this is a positive space that wishes everybody good health. For all the talk of Garoppolo not being able to throw deep, I offer you this: He wasn’t asked to do that much in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and he has never had a receiver like Davante Adams.

Reed: Over

The Raiders don’t have the spoils of riches the San Francisco 49ers have on offense, but they still have a pretty good collection of weapons featuring Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Mayer, Austin Hooper and Josh Jacobs, among others. Barring injury, it’s hard to see Garoppolo not clearing this mark. He hasn’t thrown a bunch of touchdowns even when healthy — he’s only averaged 21 touchdowns in the three seasons in which he’s played double-digit games — but Adams’ propensity to get into the end zone pushes him over the hump here.

Context: Those are Jacobs’ averages per year in his four NFL seasons.

Reed: Over

Jacobs was the best running back in the NFL last season. He may get off to a slow start after taking OTAs and training camp off, but I have him putting together another elite season as an all-purpose back.

Tafur: Over

I don’t think Jacobs will match his numbers of a year ago, but the Raiders will continue to feed him the rock. I don’t know how much faith they have in backup Zamir White, but more importantly, they seem not to have long-term plans for Jacobs, so they are not concerned with wear and tear. I don’t think either side wants the franchise tag again next season.

GO DEEPER

'We're here': Josh Jacobs practices with Raiders for first time since last season

Context: That’s what Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber combined to produce in 2021, the last time Jacobs had a true backup playing behind him. White had only 17 carries for 70 yards as a rookie last season.

Tafur: Under

Two words. Ameer Abdullah. White will surely get more than 17 carries this season, but Abdullah is a savvy veteran who pass-blocks well and will take third-down opportunities away from White. Josh McDaniels loves that third-and-long dump-off to Abdullah.

Reed: Under

White will top his numbers from last season, but I still don’t think he eats significantly into Jacobs’ touches this season. He’s still coming along as a pass blocker and receiver and hasn’t been able to supplant Abdullah as the third-down back. Unless Jacobs gets hurt, I’m just not sure where these carries come from.

Context: Those are Adams’ averages over the last seven seasons since he became a featured part of the Green Bay Packers offense beginning in 2016.

Reed: Over

Adams’ 55.6 percent catch rate in 2022 was the second-lowest rate of his career, and he still surpassed all these totals. Although he probably won’t surpass the career-high 180 targets he had last season, the Raiders hope to find a way for him to be more efficient. If they’re able to pull that off, this should be light work.

Tafur: Over

(Winds my arm up.) I think Adams would post those numbers with me at quarterback, he is so wide open. Adams is the best receiver in the NFL — yes, over Justin Jefferson! — and, beyond his physical skills, it’s because of his ability to play mind games with defensive backs. He really is playing speed chess out there. He also made some noise this offseason about not being on the same page as the Raiders brass, and they are going to make sure Jimmy 9 G’s keeps throwing to Adams. As if he needed to be told.

No matter who is throwing the ball, Davante Adams is putting up numbers. (Kiyoshi Mio / USA Today)

Context: Those are Renfrow’s career averages over four NFL seasons.

Tafur: Under

Renfrow has worked hard to buy in and had a great training camp. That doesn’t change that the Raiders brought in slot guys DeAndre Carter and Tre Tucker, and there is only one football to go around.

Reed: Over

Renfrow had a brutal season marred by injuries last year, but he’s still a good player and one of the best slot receivers in the league. He had a strong training camp and looks to be more comfortable in McDaniels’ system. The additions of Meyers, Tucker and Carter will likely eat into both his reps and touches, but I still expect him to have a productive season.

Context: These are Mayer’s projected numbers from Jake Ciely’s fantasy cheat sheet.

Reed: Under

There are only so many targets to go around. Mayer will likely split time with Hooper early in the season. To carve out a more full-time role, he’ll also need to make significant strides as a blocker. It feels like he’ll have fairly pedestrian production this season as he finds his way.

Tafur: Under

I have no doubt that Mayer will make some tough, contested catches in his rookie year. I just don’t know if there will be a lot of them given his lack of speed, the other playmakers on this offense, the presence of Hooper and the learning curve for a rookie in a complicated system.

GO DEEPER

Rookie tight end Michael Mayer getting up to speed after a slow start

Context: This is Crosby’s average across four NFL seasons.

Tafur: Under

I will be the bad guy and take the under, giving The Condor something to get more fired up about. I have him for nine sacks — and my reasoning is that the rest of the defensive line is better and Crosby will have a ton of pressures and open things up for everybody else to have more sacks. Even Malcolm Koonce gets four sacks.

Reed: Over

Crosby is known for registering a ton of pressures more so than racking up high sack numbers. With that being said, I still have him getting double-digit sacks this season.

Context: Jones has averaged 0.46 sacks per game over the last three seasons. If he were to play 15 games — he’s played 15 games the last two seasons and at least 15 games in seven of the past eight seasons — that would equate to 6.9 sacks.

Reed: Over

Jones started to come on strong toward the end of last season before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. It’s not a good sign that he missed a chunk of training camp with an undisclosed injury, but he should be ready to go for Week 1, is in better shape and is motivated to bounce back.

Tafur: Over

Every time Jones gets a sack this year, he should stiff-arm the quarterback’s face into the turf like he did to Mac Jones last season. The fans will forgive the penalty flags, especially when it happens 8 1/2 times. Jones overcame a slow start last season, appears to be healthy after missing 11 days of training camp and is leaner and meaner this year. He is still making his push for the Hall of Fame.

Chandler Jones had 4 1/2 sacks last season, but we’re bullish on a bounce-back season. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)

Context: Wilson had seven sacks in each of his final two seasons at Texas Tech.

Tafur: Push

I have the defensive line with 50 to 60 sacks, apparently. Wilson is getting his feet wet, but he has enough explosion and power to get a handful of sacks off the bench. And I figure Crosby will chase another two quarterbacks right into the rookie’s big arms. Five plus two. Seven.

Reed: Under

Wilson is a raw player and remains early in his development process after missing OTAs and most of training camp due to injury. The Raiders will bring him along slowly in a crowded defensive line room and work toward preparing him to replace Jones in the future.

GO DEEPER

Defensive line could be key to Raiders' season — an inside look at how they practice

Context: Peters has had at least three interceptions every NFL season he’s played, except last season. The Raiders, meanwhile, haven’t had a player with three interceptions since Jeff Heath in 2020 and haven’t had a cornerback with three INTs since Gareon Conley in 2018.

Reed: Over

Peters had a rough 2022, but that was understandable considering he was coming off a torn ACL. He has looked back to form during training camp and has brought a defensive playmaking ability that has been infectious throughout the rest of the secondary. He’ll carry that over to the regular season.

Tafur: Under

We have all jinxed this poor guy. All this talk of how he is Mr. Interception every year means he will only get two. But the Raiders will take that if he brings some swagger, toughness and solid coverage at the age of 30.

Context: That is the Raiders’ paltry average over the past five seasons, in which their best season was 2018 when their 17 takeaways were 24th in the league. They were last in the league last season with 13 and have ranked between 30th and 32nd every season since 2019. Their 75 takeaways since 2018 are 10 fewer than the next-lowest total (Detroit Lions, 85).

Tafur: Over

If they don’t get 15 turnovers, someone is getting fired.

Reed: Over

The Raiders have been allergic to takeaways since I graduated college, but I think they’ll be in the below-average to average range this season. For context, NFL teams averaged 22.2 takeaways last season. With Peters leading the way, I think they come close.

Context: The Raiders were 30th in the league last season with 27. They’ve averaged only 25.6 sacks per season over the past five seasons, the worst number in the league.

Reed: Over

Crosby was one of the best pass rushers in the league last season, but the Raiders still had one of the worst pass rushes in the league because he didn’t have any help. Between Jones, Wilson and a deep defensive tackle group, I think he’ll have more this season. The pass rush still won’t be great, but it could be solid.

Tafur: Over

If you have been reading us this preseason, the Raiders had 15 studs, and it was tough to cut five, even after trading Neil Farrell Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs. Jerry Tillery, Bilal Nichols, Byron Young and John Jenkins are a pretty solid rotation inside, and that’s not even counting Nesta Jade Silvera or Adam Butler. And we have the four ends combining for 28 1/2 sacks already.

Context: That’s BetMGM’s latest Raiders win total. (The Athletic’s Austin Mock projects 7.5 wins.)

Tafur: Over

I feel like I am being super positive when I say eight wins, but that’s still a losing record. That’s not good when you have three top-20 players and you decided to pay Garoppolo $24 million this season rather than trade up for a top rookie. But McDaniels’ and Dave Ziegler’s job security will come down to the development of their draft picks and not wins and losses this season.

Reed: Under

The Raiders are a weird team with some great individual talent, but the roster is still lacking. It doesn’t help that they’re in the AFC, which looks to be hellacious this season. I don’t have them being bad enough to be in the Caleb Williams range in next year’s draft, but this feels like a five- or six-win team.

(Top photos of Josh Jacobs: Chris Unger / Getty Images; Jimmy Garoppolo: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images; Maxx Crosby: Jeff Bottari / Getty Images)