Will Hurricane Ian hit Orlando? – Orlando Sentinel

Tropical Storm Ian formed Friday night in the Caribbean with a five-day cone of uncertainty that projects it to grow into a major Category 3 Hurricane Ian and make landfall on Florida’s southwest coast on Wednesday.

The name Hermine was taken by a quickly forming tropical storm late Friday off the coast of Africa.

“We are watching the path, still not quite clear-cut, but it is aiming in the general direction of Florida sometime next week,” said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Bryan Karrick. “So I’d spend the weekend getting your hurricane preps ready to go, maybe top off the gas tank, and get your generator ready, some bottled water and canned good as well as we watch the system next week.”

As of 11 p.m. Friday, Tropical Storm Ian is located in the central Caribbean with 40 mph winds. It’s projected to be a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds and gusts of 140 mph by Wednesday afternoon with its center now expected near Port Charlotte near where Hurricane Charley made a devastating landfall before cutting across the state including Orlando in 2004.

The five-day forecast map has shifted throughout the day with landfall projections as far north as Sarasota, but now has it arcing farther away from Naples in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night before turning for a more northeastern path that would put the center over Lakeland as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds by 8 p.m. Wednesday.

All of Central Florida including Orlando remain officially within the NHC’s cone of uncertainty including Orange, Seminole, Lake, Osceola, Brevard, Polk and Volusia counties. Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday declared a state of emergency in 24 counties including Osceola, Polk and Brevard.

[ How to prepare for a Florida hurricane - whether you’re a newbie or veteran ]

Already in Central Florida, which has seen a lot of rainfall of late, the Orange and Seminole county officials have started sandbag service and are preparing shelters in the event they’re needed. Shelter locations are not announced until the shelters are fully set up and staffed.

Floridians need to keep track of changes in the track, which come every six hours from the National Hurricane Center, at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. The center also gives intermediate advisories between those forecasts with updates in sustained winds, direction and current location.

And impacts can occur outside of the cone of uncertainty, which is geared more toward where the center of the storm will potentially be.

Hurricane-force winds and tropical-storm-force winds can extend out 100-200 miles in many cases.

[ MAP: Here’s the latest forecast track for what could be Hurricane Ian ]

As of 8 p.m. Friday, the NHC’s wind predictions are that Central Florida has a 50-60% chance it will see tropical-storm-force winds within five days.

Rainfall can also be an issue, as tropical storms can bring the threat of flooding, especially if they are slow-moving systems.

Much of Central Florida has experienced above heavy rainfall over the past two weeks, which will increase the likelihood of flash flooding conditions with the anticipated heavy rain.