10 p.m. Advisory: Ian Slightly Stronger, Expected to Become Hurricane Tomorrow

Tropical Storm Ian continues to slowly get more organized tonight over the northwestern Caribbean.

It seems to have made the northwestern turn as expected.

The official forecast from the NHC looks a lot like the early guidance from the 0z runs tonight carrying the center into the FLorida Big Bend area.

BULLETINTropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 8NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0920221100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

…IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME AHURRICANE ON SUNDAY……HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION———————————————–LOCATION…14.7N 77.7WABOUT 395 MI…630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMANABOUT 685 MI…1105 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS——————–CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cubanprovinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and aTropical Storm Watch for the Cuban provinces of La Habana,Mayabeque, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…* Grand Cayman

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence oftropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outsidepreparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect lifeand property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Floridapeninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor productsissued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK———————-At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian waslocated near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. Ian ismoving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward thewest-northwest and northwest at a similar forward speed is expectedon Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Mondayand north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian isforecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass nearor west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move nearor over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge overthe southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin onSunday. Ian is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday and reachmajor hurricane strength by late Monday before it reaches westernCuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND———————-Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussionunder AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on theweb at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman byearly Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sundaynight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman andCayman Brac by Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane conditionsare possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Mondaynight or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible bylate Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within thetropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the followingrainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima upto 8 inches

Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches

Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximaup to 6 inches through Tuesday evening

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas ofhigher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urbanflooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and theFlorida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding andrises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and partsof the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Floridagiven already saturated antecedent conditions.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cubain areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and earlyTuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet abovenormal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshorewinds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica inareas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaicaovernight and the Cayman Islands on Sunday. Swells will thenspread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and thecoasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of MexicoMonday and Monday night. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consultproducts from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY————-Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$Forecaster Berg

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical