Grammys 2020 predictions: Who should, will and won’t win, plus N.J. nominee odds

For hell or high water, the Grammys are back.

Music’s biggest night returns Sunday under a cloud of suspicion following the swift ouster of the Recording Academy’s new chief executive Deborah Dugan, who claimed sexual harassment among executives in the organization and raised issue over its alleged backroom dealings and misconduct regarding its nomination process. Then there’s the growing concern, raised in recent years by Drake, Frank Ocean and others, that the Grammys are out of touch and have failed to recognize music’s diverse A-list artists (only one non-white artist, Bruno Mars, won Album of the Year in the 2010s). Taylor Swift will reportedly not attend the ceremony following Dugan’s allegations.

Yet here we are — the 62nd Annual Grammy Awards are set to air 8 p.m. on CBS from Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Bombastic newcomer Lizzo leads the nominees with eight nods for her mammoth breakout year.

Performers include Lizzo, Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Aerosmith, Blake Shelton and Gwen Stefani, Demi Lovato, Camila Cabello, Rosalía, Bonnie Raitt, the Jonas Brothers, Tyler, the Creator, H.E.R. and Charlie Wilson. Alicia Keys will host for the second consecutive year.

But before the star-studded event kicks off, let’s run through some predictions for who should, will and won’t win the Big Four categories (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist), plus how all the New Jersey nominees will likely fare at the ceremony.

Album of the Year

The nominees:

“I,I,” Bon Iver

“Norman F---ing Rockwell!,” Lana Del Rey

“When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?,” Billie Eilish

“Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande

“I Used to Know Her,” H.E.R.

“7,” Lil Nas X

“Cuz I Love You (Deluxe),” Lizzo

“Father of the Bride,” Vampire Weekend

Who should win: “Norman F---ing Rockwell!,” Lana Del Rey. The queen of beachy bedroom pop took a quantum leap in August with this masterfully penned project — elegance and emotional turmoil abound, highly recommend if you missed it last year. But the artist born Elizabeth Grant hasn’t had any luck at the Grammys: she’s 0 for 4 in past nominations and this album, while critically acclaimed, didn’t invade the zeitgeist with the same fervor as some others on the list.

Who will win: “Thank U, Next,” Ariana Grande. The former Nickelodeon star (seems like decades ago now) has enjoyed a massive two-year run with the seemingly back-to-back releases of “Sweetner” in summer 2018 and her somehow even more gigantic “Thank U, Next” in February of last year. This record hit the sweet spot: monster sales and streaming totals, the greatest critical lauding of Grande’s career and a stormy, hip-hop-imbued tone that now fuels most big-splash pop records. The stellar singer will finally get her big Grammy moment this year (she’s nominated five times).

Who definitely won’t win: “7,” Lil Nas X. Beyond the viral success of “Old Town Road,” the new-coming rapper feels like a flash in the pan. “7” wasn’t particularly good or memorable.

Record of the Year

The nominees:

"Hey, Ma," Bon Iver

"Bad Guy," Billie Eilish

"7 Rings," Ariana Grande

"Hard Place," H.E.R.

"Talk," Khalid

"Old Town Road," Lil Nas X Featuring Billy Ray Cyrus

"Truth Hurts," Lizzo

"Sunflower," Post Malone & Swae Lee

Who should win: “Truth Hurts,” Lizzo. Was there a more quotable song in 2019 than Lizzo’s addictive patriarchy blaster? “Truth” was one of several big winners for the Houston singer last year — if not for Billie Eilish, she’d have easily been ‘19’s breakout star supreme. But the competition is stiff this year and as much as it hurts, I don’t think Lizzo’s gonna get there.

Who will win: “Old Town Road,” Lil Nas X Featuring Billy Ray Cyrus. Hokey and viral, yes, but Record of the Year regularly goes to the year’s most inescapable hit and it’s hard to argue against Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus on this one. The song was No. 1 in the U.S. for 19 consecutive weeks, breaking a nearly 25-year-old record (sorry, Mariah) and showed us just how effective country-trap music can be when given the right spin. While there are certainly better songs on the list, I believe the stats will win out here.

Who definitely won’t win: “Hey Ma,” Bon Iver. It’s a great lead single from the electro-folk songwriter but the song’s visibility is miniscule compared to the rest of the list. Only the big dogs win ROTY.

Song of the Year

The nominees:

"Always Remember Us This Way," Natalie Hemby, Lady Gaga, Hillary Lindsey & Lori McKenna, songwriters (Lady Gaga)

"Bad Guy," Billie Eilish O'Connell & Finneas O'Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish)

"Bring My Flowers Now," Brandi Carlile, Phil Hanseroth, Tim Hanseroth & Tanya Tucker, songwriters (Tanya Tucker)

"Hard Place," Ruby Amanfu, Sam Ashworth, D. Arcelious Harris, H.E.R. & Rodney Jerkins, songwriters (H.E.R.)

"Lover," Taylor Swift, songwriter (Taylor Swift)

"Norman F---ing Rockwell," Jack Antonoff & Lana Del Rey, songwriters (Lana Del Rey)

"Someone You Loved," Tom Barnes, Lewis Capaldi, Pete Kelleher, Benjamin Kohn & Sam Roman, songwriters (Lewis Capaldi)

"Truth Hurts," Steven Cheung, Eric Frederic, Melissa Jefferson & Jesse Saint John, songwriters (Lizzo)

Who should win: “Bad Guy,” Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell. From a songwriting perspective, this is a bulletproof list. All great compositions. But a few things to remember: Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas wrote the melty, menacing “Bad Guy” — a No. 1 single and potential harbinger of pop’s next age — by themselves in Finneas’s bedroom when Billie was 16 years old. While I don’t think the superbly talented siblings will win this award this year, I cannot wait for whatever they concoct next.

Who will win: “Lover,” Taylor Swift. The Recording Academy snubbed Swift halfway to hell this year with its exclusion of her pop knockout LP “Lover” from the Album of the Year category. They will make it up to the pop colossus with a high-profile win in Song of the Year — a category she’s never won before. The love affair between Swift and the Academy rolls on; 10 Grammy wins in 10 years ain’t too shabby. To Swift’s credit, it’s a sweet, sweeping banner ballad that will surely spur millions of first dances at weddings for years to come.

Who definitely won’t win: “Hard Place,” Ruby Amanfu, Sam Ashworth, D. Arcelious Harris, H.E.R. & Rodney Jerkins. A fine R&B jam, but just not enough resonance to steal the award.

Best New Artist

The nominees:

Black Pumas

Billie Eilish

Lil Nas X

Lizzo

Maggie Rogers

Rosalia

Tank and the Bangas

Yola

Who should win: Billie Eilish. In 2019, a teenager from Los Angeles became a dark-pop superstar. Her first No. 1 album with “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?”, her first No. 1 single with “Bad Guy” — she’s so far the only person born after 2000 to notch a chart-topper. Not since Lorde in 2013 has mainstream music felt such a jolt from an artist who can’t even vote. She has the image, the music, the creative mind and a mammoth career ahead of her if she stays the path.

Who will win: Billie Eilish. See above. The only potential upset would be Lizzo, who also had a tremendous breakout year and has done wonders for positive body image with her persona. But I have a hard time visualizing Eilish losing, considering her mainstream insurgence.

Who definitely won’t win: Anyone who’s name isn’t Billie Eilish or Lizzo. Sorry, folks, this is very clearly a two-horse race.

New Jersey nominees + odds of winning:

Jack Antonoff, the pop-rock stalwart, hit-making producer and Bergen County native was included in three high-profile nominations: In Album Of The Year, as producer for Lana Del Rey’s heavily acclaimed LP “Norman F***ing Rockwell!”; Song Of The Year, for co-writing the song “Norman F***ing Rockwell” with Del Rey; and Producer of the Year, for his studio work with Lana Del Rey, Taylor Swift’s “Lover” album and others.

Will he win: I don’t think Antonoff will win with Del Rey — too much firepower in those coveted categories — but he has a good chance to nail Producer of the Year, considering his high-profile studio work with Del Rey and Swift, plus Brockhampton’s Kevin Abstract, his own new genre-bending project, called Red Hearse, and others. He’s up against a hot newcomer in Finneas, Billie Eilish’s brother and producer, but Antonoff has developed a reputation as a sort of female pop whisperer. This might be his year.

Pop titans and Wyckoff natives the Jonas Brothers were nominated for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for their smash hit “Sucker.”

Will they win: The only other serious contender here is the record-breaking country-trap smash “Old Town Road” by Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus. If “Old Town” wins Record of the Year as I predict, the Recording Academy may very well split the difference and give Pop Duo to Nick, Joe and Kevin. If something else wins ROTY, “Sucker” becomes an underdog.

Rodney Jerkins, the Atlantic City native better known as prolific producer Darkchild, is nominated for Record Of The Year and Song of the Year for his work on R&B star H.E.R.'s single “Hard Place.”

Will he win: I don’t see H.E.R. winning in either of these highly contested categories loaded with superstars. Sorry, Rodney.

New York indie-rock favorites Vampire Weekend — led by Glen Ridge native Ezra Koenig — were nominated for Album of the Year (“Father Of The Bride”), Best Rock Song “Harmony Hall” and Best Alternative Music Album (“Father Of The Bride”).

Will they win: No chance for AOTY, but there was a ton of critical buzz behind “Father of the Bride” and Vampire Weekend, for better or worse, has become an alternative mainstay on the Grammy radar. “Harmony Hall” is probably the favorite for “Best Rock Song” and “Father” will be neck-and-neck with Bon Iver’s “I,I” – which will also be ignored in AOTY — for Alternative Album (even though Big Thief’s sensational “U.F.O.F.” should win!).

Nija Charles, an ascendant R&B and hip-hop songwriter from Union, earned three nominations, for co-writing “No Guidance,” a Chris Brown and Drake track nominated for Best R&B Song, as well as writing on 21 Savage’s “I Am > I Was” and Meek Mill’s “Championships,” both of which are nominated for Best Rap Album.

Will she win: Any track featuring Drake has some juice, but H.E.R. has quickly become a Grammy darling and if she’s ignored in the Big Four — as she likely will be — she is likely the favorite to scoop up Best R&B Song. Good for Charles to appear on two nominated albums for 21 Savage and Meek Mill, but Tyler, The Creator’s arresting “Igor” was hands down the best hip-hop of release of 2019 and considering the lack of truly major names here — Drake, Kendrick Lamar, Travis Scott — Tyler should nab this one.

Karen O, who grew up in Englewood and is best-known as the front-woman of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs, is nominated for Best Rock Performance for her solo single “Woman” alongside producer Danger Mouse.

Will she win: The field is slightly bereft of brand names this year, and “Woman” is an awesome track, but Karen O will likely be outdone by Alabama Shakes frontwoman Brittany Howard, who nailed it with her solo debut in 2019 and should take home the trophy for her single “History Repeats.”

Christian McBride, the acclaimed jazz bassist and Montclair resident, is nominated three times this year: for Best Improvised Jazz Solo (“Sightseeing”), Best Jazz Instrumental Album (“Christian McBride’s New Jawn”) and Best Instrumental Composition (“Walkin’ Funny”).

Will he win: McBride is a perennial favorite in the jazz categories, winning six of his nine nominations before this year. So why wouldn’t he clean up again this year?

Gloria Gaynor, the disco / R&B legend and Newark native, is nominated twice: for Best Gospel Performance/Song (“Talkin’ Bout Jesus”) and Best Gospel Album (“Testimony”).

Will she win: Everyone in gospel seemed to love that Kirk Franklin “Long Live Love” release last year, and Gaynor is up against him in both categories here. Feels like a toss up but maybe she will survive.

For the full 2020 Grammys nomination list, click here.

Bobby Olivier may be reached at bolivier@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @BobbyOlivier and Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.