Canelo Alvarez will beat Sergey Kovalev to take lightweight title

LAS VEGAS — Sergey Kovalev needs a knockout to defeat Saul “Canelo” Alvarez on Saturday night and retain his WBO light heavyweight championship. If it goes to the scorecards, chances are he will lose.

This isn’t to suggest there is something sinister surrounding their scheduled 12-rounder at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. DAZN will live stream the main card, headlined by Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs) attempting to win a world title in a fourth weight division.

The judges who will score the bout are all experienced and reputable. Dave Moretti of Las Vegas, Don Trella of Connecticut and Julie Lederman of New York are among the best at their craft. But recent history suggests Kovalev (34-3-1, 28 KOs) would be wise to end things before the final bell.

The last two times Kovalev fought in Las Vegas, the Russian felt he was wronged in losing back-to-back fights with Andre Ward in 2016 and 2017. Kovalev lost the first meeting by a close decision with all three judges scoring the bout 114-113. Ward won the rematch on an eighth-round TKO that Kovalev believes was an early stoppage.

Ward, who has since retired, was ahead on two of the three judges’ cards when the bout was stopped.

“All was not fair from the first to second fight,” Kovalev said this week. “Everybody knows he lost the first fight.”

If his own personal history in Vegas isn’t enough motivation to go for a knockout, Kovalev has to consider the favorable decisions Alvarez has received in this town. Gennady “GGG” Golovkin is still fuming over the decisions rendered in his two Las Vegas fights with Alvarez in 2017 and 2018. Their first bout ended in a split draw. The rematch went to Alvarez by a majority decision.

Moretti saw Golovkin a 115-113 winner in the first fight, but favored Alvarez 115-113 in the rematch. Trella, ringside for the first fight with Golovkin, had a 114-114 draw. Lederman is working her sixth bout involving Kovalev and her first with Alvarez.

Kovalev, 36, has said he doesn’t care about the judges.

“For me, the most important thing is boxing fans and people will know who won,” he said. “I don’t worry about if I’m the underdog or not. I just feel like we will be in the same ring and everybody will be in the same position one against one.”

That would be ideal. It figures to be an intriguing fight with Alvarez moving up two weight classes to challenge for the 175-pound belt. Alvarez weighed in a career-high 174.5 pounds on Friday. Kovalev had to weigh-in twice to reach 175 pounds. Figure the champion to be about 10 pounds heavier by the first bell on Saturday.

Kovalev, four inches taller with a 2-inch reach advantage, hopes his size will give him an edge. Look for him to fight tall, behind a hard jab to keep Alvarez from getting inside. Working with Buddy McGirt as his trainer, Kovalev plans to be more technician than slugger and hope his volume of punches eventually wear down Alvarez.

“The key is to make him uncomfortable in anything that he tries to do,” McGirt said of Alvarez, whose only loss came against Floyd Mayweather by majority decision in 2013.

Alvarez, 29, seems to get better with every bout. He has shown the versatility to fight inside as he did in the second fight with Golovkin and from the outside as he did in defeating Daniel Jacobs last May. Alvarez made it clear he plans to test Kovalev’s body and his stamina.

“It’s one of the most important punches for any fighter, not just in this fight — in all fights,” Alvarez said. “Even more so with this fighter because that’s a weak point that he has.”

Alvarez knows how to score points and impress judges, especially in Las Vegas where he’ll be fighting for the fifth straight time. Kovalev can say he won’t be trying for a knockout, but he’ll need one to win.

Prediction: Alvarez by decision.