2021 Big Ten Championship Game odds, spread: Michigan vs. Iowa picks, predictions from proven model

The 15th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes are seeking a signature win to cap a great season when they face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines in Saturday's 2021 Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes (10-2) were on a dream run early in the season that saw them rise to No. 2 in the nation, but consecutive losses against Purdue and Wisconsin derailed things. They have won four in a row since then, and a win against Michigan for their first conference title since 2004 would be a major accomplishment. The Wolverines (11-1) are dangerous on both sides of the ball and are trying to stay on track for the College Football Playoff, but Iowa has one of the nation's best defenses.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Wolverines as the 11-point favorites in its latest Michigan vs. Iowa odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 43.5. Before locking in any Iowa vs. Michigan picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Iowa vs. Michigan and just locked in its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Michigan vs. Iowa:  

• Iowa vs. Michigan spread: Wolverines -11
• Iowa vs. Michigan over-under: 43.5 points 
• Iowa vs. Michigan moneyline: Hawkeyes +350, Wolverines -450 
• IOWA: It is 18-16-1 in conference games since 2018 
• MICH: It is 19-14 in Big Ten games since 2018

Why the Wolverines can cover

Michigan is 10-2 against the spread this season. It has a chance to play for its first national title since 1997 -- its 12th overall --  and won't want to let the opportunity slip away. The Wolverines are dangerous on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top 25 in most major categories. QB Cade McNamara (2,301 yards, 14 TDs) and RBs Hassan Haskins (1,232 yards, 18 TDs) and Blake Corum (865, 10) lead the offense. They will face a tough Hawkeyes defense, but Haskins had 169 yards and five TDs against an OSU unit that was ranked in the top 15 against the run.

McNamara doesn't put up huge numbers, but he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He has thrown three interceptions and been sacked six times and has 14 TD passes to 10 receivers. The Michigan defense, led by Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, will pressure Iowa QB Spencer Petras all night. Hutchinson has 13 sacks after getting three against OSU, while Ojabo has 11, with six in the past five games. Ojabo has forced five fumbles, and the Wolverines have recovered eight. Michigan is 18-13 ATS following a victory since the start of the 2018 season.    

Why the Hawkeyes can cover

Iowa is 7-2 ATS against ranked teams since the start of the 2019 season, and the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Hawkeyes have beaten all three ranked teams they have played (Indiana, Iowa State, Penn State) and have won five of the past seven against the Wolverines. The defense gives up just 17.3 points per game (10th in the nation) and ranks 13th in total yards allowed (315.8). Iowa leads the nation with 22 interceptions, with defensive backs Dane Belton (five) and Riley Moss (four) leading the way, and the unit has scored three TDs.

Jack Campbell, who is tied for eighth in the nation with 124 tackles, is the leader on defense. Joe Evans and Lukas Van Ness both have six sacks, and Noah Shannon helps clog the middle. Iowa ranks 14th in the nation against the run (15.8 yards per game). Running back Tyler Goodson is the focal point of the offense and has 1,320 total yards and seven TDs. The offense averages less than 300 yards per game, with Petras throwing for 1,532, with nine TDs and six interceptions. Tight end Sam LaPorta is the top pass-catcher with 40 receptions for 486 yards.

How to make Iowa vs. Michigan Big Ten Championship picks

The model is projecting over on the point total, suggesting the teams will combine for 47 points. The model also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Michigan vs. Iowa pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Saturday's Big Ten Championship matchup? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Michigan vs. Iowa spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 42-28 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.