Biden's chilling 'Armageddon' warning sharpens the stakes with Putin

To learn that an American president is talking so frankly about the possibility of nuclear “Armageddon,” as Joe Biden did Thursday, is bone chilling.

It’s also a commentary on the grave uncertainty over how Russian President Vladimir Putin, a self-styled strongman, might react to the increasing possibility of defeat in Ukraine in a war to which he has nailed his political survival.

Biden’s remarks, at a fundraising event in New York, could open him to criticism by political opponents that he is speaking in an inartful way about nuclear war – and at a political fundraiser of all places. They are paradoxically also a little comforting because they show that a president is fully aware of the dangers of escalation against the volatile Kremlin leader.

And whether they were meant for public consumption or not, his comments will have the effect of signaling to Putin that any use of nuclear arms – even a smaller battlefield device – could create a cascade of consequences that could lead to global disaster. Biden may be trying to reaffirm deterrence after Putin said he wasn't bluffing about his threat of using a nuclear bomb.

But Biden’s comments also show that, in one way at least, Putin’s nuclear threats have worked: They have left his adversaries unsure how he might behave.

Biden stated to Democratic donors that the world was at a dangerous time.

“(For the) first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going,” Biden said.

“We’ve got a guy I know fairly well,” Biden said of Putin.

“He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”

In an attempt to change the course of the war, US officials are worried that Putin might use a smaller tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine. The White House says it has warned the Kremlin that such a decision would be “catastrophic” for Russia but has not said publicly exactly how they would respond – though there is speculation NATO might get involved and directly target Russian forces, a scenario that could lead to a dangerous escalation with Moscow.

US officials have also said, however, that they have detected no sign that Russia is moving or readying any of its tactical nuclear weapons, which can be small enough to target soldier formations or big enough to destroy a city.A US official told CNN’s Jeremy Diamond on Friday that Biden was speaking “frankly” following Putin’s “irresponsible and reckless” rhetoric but that his comments were not based on any new information about Russia’s nuclear posture. The official also stated that there has been no change in the US's nuclear posture.

Biden’s burden

Biden’s comments on Thursday underscore the burden that he now shoulders since the first president since the end of the Cold War more than 30 years ago who faces the frightening reality that nuclear war with Moscow is possible. Historical accounts reveal that Armageddon could have been accidentally triggered at least once during the decades-long standoff among the US and Soviet Union. The only time Washington and Moscow were on the edge of a nuclear exchange was during the 13-day standoff in October 1962, almost exactly 60 years ago. This was over Russian plans to place nuclear missiles in Cuba. After intense messaging between Washington, Moscow, and Moscow, Russia's leader Nikita Khrushchev eventually gave in.

Presidents are less cautious at political fundraising events. These events are not usually on camera, even though a press pool can be allowed in for some remarks. So it’s possible that the President’s comments – his most stark on the nuclear question since the war in Ukraine started – might not have happened in a more conventional setting like a news conference. The White House has often retracted unscripted remarks by the President on foreign policy, particularly on how the US would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

But Biden’s musings do appear to offer a window into his thinking as he games out how this crisis ends. Biden seems to have wrestled with the same questions about escalation as President John Kennedy in 1962 when he played nuclear poker.

“I’m trying to figure out what is Putin’s off ramp,” Biden said. “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but significant power within Russia?” Biden said.

The President may have been thinking of Kennedy’s commencement address at American University in Washington in 1963 in which he reflected on the lessons of the Cuban missile crisis and the risks posed by weapons that could end the world.

“Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war,” Kennedy said.

“To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy – or of a collective death-wish for the world.”

Biden has been meticulous in trying to avoid a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine over Ukraine, even though Putin has framed the conflict as a showdown against the West. The greatest strategic risk now is that Russian defeats are leading Putin to exactly the same corner Kennedy warned against. Putin may have to choose between humiliation and the use of nuclear weapons.

Ramps are not for sale

The fact that there is no diplomatic process to end the war complicates the situation. After suffering unprovoked invasion and human carnage, Ukraine is not ready to talk. This is especially true now that it appears to have Russian troops on their run. Putin cannot afford to have the war end in any other way than total victory, even though he has control over Russian media and might be able to turn a loss into an advantage.

During a Thursday visit to Peru, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke out about the lack of diplomatic off ramps.

“The fact is that President Putin and Russia have shown absolutely no interest in any kind of meaningful diplomacy. And unless and until they do, it’s very hard to pursue it,” Blinken said.

“We’ve said all along, President (Volodymyr) Zelensky has said all along, that this will ultimately be resolved through diplomacy. And if and when Russia shows that it has any seriousness of purpose, about engaging in such diplomacy, we’ll be ready, we’ll be there. But every sign in this moment, unfortunately, points in the opposite direction.”

The longer the war goes on, and the greater the success of Ukraine’s forces, the more concern there will be about Putin reaching for his nuclear arsenal to try to change the equation. While some strategists think that he is either bluffing or that there are no real strategic advantages to breaking the nuclear taboo – an act that would leave Russia even more ostracized in the world – there is real concern in Western governments about Putin’s state of mind. All of his previous tactical assumptions and decisions in Ukraine have backfired and don’t show the kind of strategic caution and clear thinking that is critical when the question becomes whether or not to use nuclear weapons.

With this in mind, Biden seemed to be suggesting that the idea that a tactical nuclear weapon could be used in Ukraine to contain the conflict and not cause a larger one was wrong.

Strategic logic dictates that nuclear weapons should not be used for self-defense. Any nation that does would be signing their death warrant.

The President has sent a clear message to the Russian leader, indicating that any attempt to cross the nuclear threshold could lead to an escalation that could lead to a full-on nuclear war.

“I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said at the fundraiser.

His comments underscore the most important mission of his presidency – shepherding the world through the most dangerous nuclear brinkmanship in 60 years.