Latest On Corbin Burnes

Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.