What NASA Said About an Asteroid Hitting Earth in 2032

No, or at least not because of the 2024 YR asteroid.

First off, there is currently only about a one-in-43 chance that this rock hits Earth, and those odds will change (and probably go down) as scientists gather more data on the recently spotted asteroid. A nearly 98 percent chance it won’t hit us is pretty good.

Second, while that’s definitely a massive rock, it’s not like a dinosaurs-killing size. Three hundred feet wide is about on par with the asteroid that exploded over Siberia in 1908 (also known as the 1908 Tunguska Event). That rock blew up in the sky and flattened about 800 square miles of remote forest but obviously did not cause Armageddon.

Put another way, the asteroid currently ranks three out of ten on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which astronomers use to categorize potential Earth-impact events. Ten is an impact that could potentially end civilization, but three is:

A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

Third, if the odds do go way up, we’ll know all that well in advance of December 2032 and have plenty of time to freak out and get into prepping or for scientists to find a way to knock it off course later.