Did The Orioles Overpay For Trevor Rogers? It's Not That Simple

Image credit: Trevor Rogers (Photo by Tom DiPace)

I can’t tell you where it originated, but “Prospect Hugging” is a useful term describing the concerns about trading away prospects for big leaguers, especially around the trade deadline.

The Orioles-Marlins trade that saw lefthander Trevor Rogers go to the Orioles in return for second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers is an example of how sometimes prospect hugging can be a bit of a trap.

It’s very possible that Stowers and Norby will immediately become regulars in Miami. Rogers is a lefthander who has been pedestrian at best in recent years. The velocity on his once 94-96 mph fastball has diminished as he has battled lap, bicep and back injuries. He has sat 91-93 mph this year, which has made everything else, including his excellent changeup, play down.

So what are the Orioles thinking?

In Rogers, Baltimore added a relatively low-cost ($1.5 million contract this year) starting pitcher who has two more seasons of team control before he reaches free agency. For all his injury issues, this is the third time in four years that Rogers has made 20+ MLB starts and thrown 100+ innings. Even if he doesn’t improve, he’s a useful back-of-the-rotation starter.

And that’s a big if. The Orioles have shown on multiple occasions that they can help a pitcher figure out ways to unlock further performance gains. See Kyle Bradish, Albert Suarez, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells as examples.

With Rogers, it is about getting him back to what he once was. Rogers was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he was sitting at 95 mph in 2021. He has shown how good he can be (7-8, 2.64 with a 2.55 FIP in 2021) with that kind of arm speed.

Maybe they won’t succeed, but it’s a pretty low-risk attempt. The cost to acquire Rogers, who has 2+ seasons before free agency, isn’t all that different than what the Astros sent to Toronto (Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner) for 2+ months of Yusei Kikuchi.

The other aspect of this? Norby and Stowers don’t fit into the Orioles’ plans. Both could improve the Marlins lineup. But both of them have already topped 1,000 plate appearances in Triple-A Norfolk for the Orioles.

Norby hadn’t been able to push aside Jorge Mateo until Mateo went on the injured list. With Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday also in Triple-A as plausible partners for Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg in Baltimore, Norby didn’t have a clear path to changing that anytime soon.

Norby also can play a corner outfield spot, but that didn’t make his path any easier. Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Anthony Santander were ahead of him on the depth chart in the corner outfield spots.

That’s something Stowers knows a lot about as well. He reached Triple-A in 2021 and saw a good chunk of playing time in Baltimore late in the 2022 season. Two seasons later, he’s still bouncing between Norfolk and Baltimore.

Prospects do grow stale. In Stowers’ case, he’s already used two options. The Orioles are going to need more 40-man roster spots going forward as well. By trading two solid players, but ones who didn’t fit in the team’s long-term plans, Baltimore has managed to find another piece for the starting rotation, which looms as the team’s biggest question mark going forward.