Experts: Amazon Prime Day expected to be biggest yet, despite ...

Amazon’s highly anticipated 48-hour Prime Day kicks off Tuesday, July 16. Last year, Amazon reported its biggest Prime Day ever, with shoppers purchasing more than 375 million items. That’s up from 300 million in 2022. Experts believe this year will be no different, but with high demand comes an influx in shipment that puts pressure on transportation systems and the environment.

“We’re expecting to see record sales which highlights the disconnect between consumer confidence metrics and actual spending patterns,” says Virginia Tech economist Jadrian Wooten. “Consumer sentiment surveys consistently show apprehension about the current state of the economy. In fact, it’s among the top political concerns for the 2024 Presidential race.”

Wooten says a big Prime Day would typically be seen as an indicator of a healthy economy. “It’s hard to justify this expectation as just pent-up demand. Instead, it suggests that the economy is doing a lot better than people want to admit.”

More buying also means an influx of packages shipped and delivered in the following days. Experts suggest that while saving those dollars, you might also consider checking the “ship everything in one box” option. This saves on the greenhouse gas emissions from drivers dropping off multiple shipments at one household and can even earn buyers Amazon credits for future purchases. 

Md Sami Hasine is an expert in transportation systems and infrastructure engineering at Virginia Tech and has worked with Amazon on several research projects. His simulation-based e-commerce demand models show that increased shipping demands ultimately impact the environment and greenhouse gas emissions. 

“Medium and heavy-duty freight vehicles are responsible for nearly 7 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.,” says Hasine. “With the increase of on-demand delivery in recent years, vehicle emissions and congestion have increased exponentially on urban and rural roads in the U.S. It’s also created an increase in the number of trucks parked for long hours on the side of interstates and busy urban roads, leading to severe safety and health issues for residents.”

Hasnine suggests that supermarket chains and online retailers could work with consumers to reduce emissions and road congestion in a pre-scheduled clustered approach. “Take groceries for example. Instead of numerous deliveries per month, machine-learning models can predict each household’s monthly grocery demand and send them recommendations at the beginning of each month. So, instead of multiple deliveries, you’re only getting one or two.”

About Wooten  

Jadrian Wooten is a collegiate associate professor with the Virginia Tech Department of Economics, part of the Virginia Tech College of Science, and is the author of “Parks and Recreation and Economics.” Wooten has been featured in a number of publications and broadcast programs including  USA Today and  NBC News. Read more about him here and his thoughts in his weekly newsletter, Monday Morning Economist.

About Hasnine

Md Sami Hasnine is an assistant professor in the Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Virginia Tech. Hasnine’s research is at the intersection of transportation engineering, econometrics, data science, and psychology – how human behavior is connected to transportation decision-making. He builds mathematical models to develop smart, sustainable cities to reduce emissions and energy consumption.

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Contact Margaret Ashburn in the media relations office at mkashburn@vt.edu or 540-529-0814.