NBA Play-In Tournament picks, odds for Hawks-Heat and ...

The NBA postseason is here with the play-in games starting with two games. LeBron James’ Lakers and Jimmy Butler’s Heat have the history and the stars to make postseason runs, but are stuck in the Play-In Tournament.

Tuesday’s games pit the teams with the seventh-best record in each conference against the teams with the eighth-best record in the respective conference. It’s winner get in as the No. 7 seed in both games. Tuesday’s losers will play home games with the eighth and final seeds in each conference on the line. Those teams will host the winners of Wednesday’s games, which feature the ninth- and 10th-best records in each conference. Here’s a further explanation of the Play-In format.

During the NBA Playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks. For live NBA odds from BetMGM, click here.

7:30 p.m. ET on TNT

What are the odds for Hawks vs. Heat?

Well, well, well. They meet again.

In a rematch of last year’s 1-8 matchup in the first round, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will square off on Tuesday night in the first Play-In Tournament game of 2023. In keeping with the recent history of this head-to-head, the Heat enter as solid favorites.

These are two teams in the midst of disappointing seasons. Ten months ago, Miami was one Jimmy Butler 3-pointer away from a trip to the NBA Finals. Two years ago, Atlanta took the eventual 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks to six games in that Eastern Conference finals — and followed a regression to the Play-In Tournament and eighth seed in 2022 by swinging a big trade for Dejounte Murray last offseason.

But now, both are fighting for their playoff lives. The good news for fans is it should be an interesting stylistic matchup.

The Heat finished the season 44-38 but with a -0.5 net rating that ranked 21st in the NBA. The 41-41 Hawks narrowly outscored opponents by 0.1 points per 100 possessions this year (19th). However, they each butter their bread in different ways. The Heat’s offense, dragged down by shoddy 3-point shooting and a trudging tempo, was 25th in the NBA this season, but their defense — ninth with a 112.8 rating — remains stout. The Hawks, meanwhile, have a porous defense, but remain a potent offensive group (115.5 rating, ninth) that, despite a low volume of 3-point attempts, thrives in the midrange, takes care of the ball and attacks the offensive glass.

Forgive the vanilla analysis, but the X-factor to this matchup will be the performance of each team’s best player: Trae Young for Atlanta and Butler for Miami.

En route to a gentleman’s sweep in last year’s playoffs, the Heat suffocated Young with an aggressive, switch-heavy defensive scheme, holding him to 15.4 points and six assists (against 6.2 turnovers) per game on 31.9 percent shooting. But that was before the addition of Murray and head coach Quin Snyder — and with a key defensive cog in P.J. Tucker (now a 76er) averaging 28.3 minutes.

As for Butler, he quietly authored perhaps the most efficient season of his career in 2022-23 despite Miami’s team-wide regression — and has a habit of dialing his level up even further come postseason time.

The Heat took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams and held Young to the second-lowest scoring average (19.8) and field goal percentage (35.6) of any Hawks opponent.

The winner of Tuesday’s game will fill the seventh seed and face the Boston Celtics in the first round. The loser will play the winner of Wednesday’s game between the Raptors and Bulls for the right to play the Bucks in the 1-8 series.

Expert picks for Hawks vs. Heat

10 p.m. ET on TNT

What are the odds for Lakers vs. Timberwolves?

Typically, the final day of the NBA regular season is for resting stars and wonky stat lines. But the Timberwolves turned Sunday into an unfortunately eventful day.

Rudy Gobert swung on Kyle Anderson in a timeout huddle (resulting in a one-game suspension). Jaden McDaniels’ right hand is fractured. And, despite a thrilling comeback win over New Orleans, a formidable opponent awaits in the opening game of the Western Conference Play-In Tournament on Tuesday night. The Lakers are pegged as solid favorites for the contest.

That Lakers team finished the season 43-39, one game better than Minnesota. But since their trade deadline facelift — which involved adding Jarred Vanderbilt, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley while shedding Russell Westbrook — the Lakers have the best record in the West (18-9). With Anthony Davis and LeBron James both available entering the postseason, the potential to employ two of the best players in any matchup makes the Lakers dangerous, particularly in a single-game scenario.

As banged up as they are — Naz Reid is also indefinitely sidelined — the Timberwolves have an uphill battle ahead. But Anthony Edwards is also a candidate to take over any game in which he plays. Just ask the Pelicans, who fell victim to a 26-point, 13-rebound, four-assist, steal and block performance by the third-year superstar on Sunday:

Karl-Anthony Towns is also back after an extended injury absence, adding some firepower to Minnesota’s offensive attack, and Mike Conley has been a snug fit at the point guard spot.

As for the regular season series: Minnesota took two of three games, although the first win came in late October. They split two matchups in March, with the Timberwolves win coming early in the month while James was on the shelf and the Lakers’ win coming on March 31 with both sides near full strength.

The winner will face the Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs as the seventh seed, while the loser will vie for the eighth seed — and a date with the Denver Nuggets — against the winner of Pelicans-Thunder.

Expert picks for Lakers vs. Timberwolves More on the NBA Play-In Tournament

NBA Play-In Tournament schedule, format and its impact on the league

Full NBA playoff bracket set: What to expect from Play-In games, First Round matchups

(Photo of LeBron James: Harry How / Getty Images)