Missed last night's crazy northern lights? Here's the chance tonight

A geomagnetic storm started hitting Earth last night. Here’s what the experts say about the storm continuing tonight, and producing another round of northern lights.

Several Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs for short) finally started hitting Earth’s upper atmosphere last night. These CMEs can create what is called a “solar storm” or also called a “geomagnetic storm.” The geomagnetic storm has a strength specified by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC). SWPC made an easier-to-understand index number which indicates the strength of the current geomagnetic storm. SWPC also uses this same index number to convey the forecasted strength of the geomagnetic storm over the next three days. The strength scale goes from G1 which is a weak geomagnetic storm to G5, an extreme geomagnetic storm.

At 11 a.m. today the SWPC ranked the new geomagnetic storm as a G4 storm, also called a severe geomagnetic storm.

The northern lights seen last night as far south as Michigan’s border were likely showing as the G scale rose from G2 to G4.

Now the question is does the G4 strength continue into tonight? Also of course in Michigan we have to see if skies will be clear or not.

Let’s take the easy part -the sky condition. It is easy for tonight. We should have almost entirely clear skies tonight.

If the geomagnetic energy is still hitting Earth hard we will have northern lights again.

SWPC officially has a forecast of a G2 moderate magnetic storm for tonight. They will tell you that forecasting geomagnetic energy hitting Earth is not a super exact science just yet.

Here is SWPC’s forecast of how far south the northern lights will be seen tonight.

The forecast above indicates northern lights could be visible down to the faint red line which runs right along the southern Michigan border. The fuzzy green area of the northern half of Michigan will have a pretty good chance of seeing northern lights. The red area is well north of Michigan and the area where a person can really see a magical northern lights show.

SWPC gives us another number in the forecast, the Kp Index. This is really the strength of the geomagnetic energy. When the energy hit Earth’s atmosphere this morning it created a Kp Index of 7, which is very high.

The Kp Index forecast tonight is for a lesser value of 4. This would indicate a farther north viewing of the northern lights.

But NOAA’s SWPC is very forthcoming on their confidence of forecasting northern lights. They don’t have high confidence in extreme accuracy because there is only one point above Earth to evaluate the strength of the geomagnetic energy hitting Earth.

The good news is the energy is hitting Earth now so the northern lights could be as early as right after sunset.

I’d say it’s definitely worth making the effort to get to a dark spot in Michigan by 10 p.m. Get out into an area where you can see an open view northward. If you can get to a high spot and look down to the north you’ll be in a great spot. The tip of the Thumb is a good spot to head for out of the Detroit and Ann Arbor areas. Leelanau County, Benzie County and Manistee County are good areas in western Lower Michigan.

Let’s recap. We have clear skies tonight. We have geomagnetic energy hitting Earth now. The northern lights would happen early tonight.

Good luck!