“The Only Democrat Who Has a Chance”: Joe Manchin's White ...

As Joe Manchin leaves the door open to a 2024 bid for the White House, the West Virginia senator insists he would never run merely to hurt Joe Biden’s reelection chances and boost Donald Trump. “I’ve never been in any race I’ve ever spoiled. I’ve been in races to win,” the senator said Monday evening at an event in New Hampshire sponsored by centrist group No Labels, which incidentally is looking for a candidate to head a possible third-party ticket. “And if I get in a race, I’m gonna win.”

Inside the Beltway, however, the fear isn’t just that Manchin could hurt Biden’s reelection chances should he take a run at the White House, but that he could also cost Democrats the Senate majority. As Matt Bennett, the executive vice president of public affairs at the moderate think tank Third Way—which opposes a third-party candidacy—put it, Manchin has “defied political gravity in West Virginia.” In the 2020 presidential election, Trump carried the state with 68.6% of the vote to Biden’s 29.7%. And yet, in 2018, Manchin eked out a victory over his Republican opponent, Patrick Morrisey, by a margin of 49.6% to 46.3%.

“He’s probably the only Democrat who has a chance of keeping that seat,” Bennett said in an interview with Vanity Fair, expressing a desire to see Manchin run for reelection in the Senate. As for winning the White House, though, “that is not possible and not gonna happen,” he said.

West Virginia’s increasingly rightward turn might be a reason Manchin is looking for alternatives; in a bid for reelection, he would likely face the state’s popular governor, Jim Justice (a Trump-era Republican convert). Onstage Monday evening, Manchin dodged when asked directly if he had plans to run as a third-party candidate backed by No Labels. That was “putting the cart ahead of the horse,” the West Virginia Democrat said. Following the event, Manchin also demurred on whether he would run for another term in the Senate. “I haven’t made any decision, nor will I make a decision until the end of the year,” he said in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

As reported by Vanity Fair last week, Manchin’s Democratic colleagues in Congress aren’t sweating the threat that one of their own might run against Biden in 2024—at least publicly. “There are often third-party candidates running, so I’m not overly troubled,” Senator Tim Kaine told VF. But they also aren’t thrilled at the prospect either. “Everyone has a right to run,” Congressman Eric Swalwell said. “But I think it’s clear that this country is Team Community or Team Chaos right now—and anything that hurts Team Community helps Team Chaos.”

Eyes are also on Arizona senator Kyrsten Sinema. The Democrat turned independent has yet to announce whether she will run for reelection for the Senate seat she currently holds. Democratic Arizona congressman Ruben Gallego, who announced his Senate campaign in January, outraised Sinema this past quarter, bringing in $3.1 million to her $1.7 million. That said, Sinema is sitting on a nearly $10.8 million war chest, as reported by Politico.

In a similarity to the Manchin situation, there is concern among Democrats that Sinema could prove to be a spoiler in the Senate race in Arizona. The seat is a top target for Republicans in 2024—especially as Sinema’s popularity has sunk. According to an April poll, only 27% of Arizona voters want the sitting senator to run again. In a three-way matchup, Sinema would only pull in 14% of the vote compared to Gallego’s 42% and failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s 35%. (Though Lake has not announced a Senate bid, she is seen as a potential contender.) In an interview with VF, Gallego said he thinks Arizonans “have already hit their boiling point” with Sinema. “They’ve already tipped over.”

Sinema has not revealed her future political plans. But in a statement to Politico, a Sinema spokesperson said of the latest fundraising numbers: “Arizonans are sick of extreme career candidates constantly saying and doing whatever it takes to raise more and more money.” Sinema, this person added, “promised Arizonans she’d be an independent senator,” and “that’s exactly what she’s done.”

As for Manchin, he says he just wants to “make sure that the American people have an option” at a time when both parties have, in his view, been pushed to the fringe. That’s the argument No Labels has made as well in teasing a possible third-party presidential bid. Nancy Jacobson, the founder and CEO of the group, did address the growing concerns that a third-party campaign would only bolster Trump’s candidacy. “We will not spoil for either side. The only reason to do this is to win,” Jacobson said in an interview with NBC News. But recent polling doesn’t bear out a victory at this stage. A survey shows Biden winning 52% to Trump’s 48% in a two-candidate contest, but losing in a three-candidate contest, with Trump up 40% to Biden’s 39% and a third candidate securing 21% of the vote.

Jacobson didn’t detail at what point the group would back down.