Iowa vs. UConn expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA ...

On Friday night, the second of the women’s Final Four games pits two of the sport’s greatest stars against each other: Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies. The matchup looks to be exceptional. Iowa is a narrow favorite, and our model projects this game as an even contest. Even the name — Hawkeyes vs. Huskies — has quite the ring to it.

Geno Auriemma may have been slightly tongue-in-cheek when he said, “Forget I said Paige was the best player in the country, I think [Caitlin Clark] is the best player of all time.” But that speaks to the scope of this game. Clark’s last outing — the “rematch” against LSU — was the most-watched women’s basketball game of all time. Now she and the Hawkeyes will see if they can make it to their second final ever, and in back-to-back years. Meanwhile, UConn will attempt to make their 12th finals appearance and their first since 2022.

We’ve got a breakdown for you from the betting angle: analysis from our women’s college basketball team, predictions for final score, key players and how to watch the game.

Get excited; the countdown is on.

From our Final Four preview:

Clark’s first NCAA Tournament run ended with a loss to Bueckers and UConn in the Sweet 16. It’s only fitting that her college career includes a rematch against her fellow former 2020 recruit. They were Team USA teammates and each has won the national player of the year award (Bueckers as a freshman, Clark as a junior). And both are chasing a national championship.

It’s hard to think of the Huskies versus the Hawkeyes without starting with Bueckers versus Clark, considering their individual dominance and the way their careers have intertwined. Colorado and LSU had no answers for Clark, who tallied 70 points and 27 assists over two regional wins. However, the Huskies have bigger perimeter defenders, starting with Nika Mühl, who took on the challenge of defending JuJu Watkins; Bueckers can also take that matchup if necessary. The problem with UConn’s defense is that it focuses on protecting the paint, and the Huskies give up a high volume of 3-pointers. That is untenable against Iowa, and not just because of Clark. Every rotation player other than Kylie Feuerbach shoots at least 36 percent from 3-point range, and they get them up.

After seeing Clark’s stat line against the Tigers, Geno Auriemma joked: “I hope Caitlin Clark had a personal agenda against LSU. I know there’s nothing personal between me and her. I don’t need to be seeing her drop 50 on us next weekend, you know?” (Of course, it may already be personal to Clark, who told ESPN that she wanted to be recruited by UConn but never got a call.)

Assuming Clark will get hers, the onus is on Bueckers to match her production. The UConn senior has never been as prolific a shot-hunter as Clark, but she has averaged nearly 28 points since the start of the conference tournament. Bueckers rises to the occasion in March, and her teammates have done enough to complement her for the Huskies to advance this far. Aaliyah Edwards will be a load for Hannah Stuelke. The rest of UConn’s rotation will have to make quick decisions with the ball; either shoot on the catch or get off of it so that Bueckers and Edwards can continue to bend the defense.

Iowa and UConn both rated as top-five offenses during the regular season, per Her Hoop Stats, so this should be a fun one. The Huskies have a better defense on paper, but there is no challenge quite like defending Clark. The way she is rolling, it’s hard to bet against her putting together a storybook finish to her collegiate career.

—Grace Raynor and Sabreena Merchant

Ben Pickman’s key to the game:

When UConn and Iowa met in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, neither Clark nor Bueckers was the game’s leading scorer. Much has changed since then. Still, the players around each team’s star guard will make the difference in the Final Four. Iowa isn’t afraid to mix up defensive looks; Addison O’Grady and Sydney Affolter have played key roles in the tournament. UConn has proven it can play various styles — winning games in Portland after scoring 80 and 53 points, respectively, despite relying on only six or seven players. I wonder if the Huskies’ lack of depth finally plagues them. Foul trouble could be an issue. They’ve improved since the regular season, but UConn struggled against top competition, losing to UCLA, Texas, South Carolina, NC State and Notre Dame, as the Huskies couldn’t contain top guards well. Pick: Iowa 82, UConn 74

How to watch Iowa vs. UConn

What: Final Four

Tipoff time: 9:30 p.m. ET Friday

TV: ESPN

Location: Cleveland

You can buy tickets to any tournament game here. 

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Iowa vs. UConn odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. 

Expert picks

Get predictions from these experts for the Iowa vs. UConn final score.

Iowa vs. UConn score projection

Austin Mock’s projection: Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the chances for each team to make it through each round of the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the women’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here is our projected score:

• Projected point spread: Iowa PK*
• Projected total: 161.5 points
• Projected score: Iowa 80.8, UConn 80.8

*”PK” signifies a “pick’em,” where the teams are considered evenly matched. Learn about the term “pick’em” in sports betting.

Players to watch

Iowa

• Caitlin Clark, senior guard, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten
• Hannah Stuelke, sophomore forward, second-team All-Big Ten
• Kate Martin, senior guard, second-team All-Big Ten

UConn

• Paige Bueckers, junior guard, Big East Player of the Year, first-team All-Big East
• Ashlynn Shade, freshman guard, Big East Freshman of the Year
• Aaliyah Edwards, senior forward, first-team All-Big East
• Nika Mühl, senior guard, second-team All-Big East

More NCAA basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Caitlin Clark: David Berding / Getty Images)