Giants vs. Chiefs odds, spread, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 126-85 run

The Kansas City Chiefs will hope a matchup with the New York Giants on Monday Night Football can give them confidence. The Chiefs (3-4) are turning the ball over at an alarming rate, while their defense has struggled to stop anyone. With the Packers, Raiders and Cowboys coming up over the next three games, the reigning AFC champs need to build momentum. They come off an ugly 27-3 loss to the Titans last week and face a Giants team that just played its best game of the season. New York (2-5) had six sacks and stifled Carolina in a 25-3 victory eight days ago.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over-Under for total points scored is 53. Before you consider your Chiefs vs. Giants picks, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,700 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 8 of the 2021 season on an incredible 126-85 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Monday night's Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Giants:

• Giants vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10.5
• Giants vs. Chiefs over-under: 53 points
• Giants vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -550, New York +400
• Giants: New York is 12-4 against the spread as a road underdog since 2019
• Chiefs: Under has hit in last two Chiefs games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 30-19 straight-up all-time on Monday Night Football, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows he needs to limit his mistakes. Mahomes has 2,093 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, but his nine interceptions are just two shy of his total over the past two seasons combined. Tight end Travis Kelce (533-4) is Mahomes' safety valve, but wide receiver Tyreek Hill (641-5) can still make chunk plays. They should get their opportunities against a defense that allows 369 yards per game (20th in the league).

The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings and the Giants have allowed at least 27 points in five of their seven games. The Chiefs score 27 points per game (eighth in NFL), while the Giants score only 20 (25th). Quarterback Daniel Jones has been sacked 14 times, and Kansas City has the pass rush to pressure him. Mike Danna (three sacks), Chris Jones (two) and Frank Clark could force Jones into mistakes.

Why the Giants can cover

Quarterback Daniel Jones is 11-5 against the spread in his career as an underdog, and he started to use his weapons more efficiently last week. Tight end Evan Engram had a season-high six catches, and receiver Dante Pettis had five while scoring a touchdown and also throwing a TD pass. They should find success against a Chiefs defense that allows a league-worst 6.6 yards per play and ranks 26th against the pass (275.7 yards per game).

Kansas City's offense has been a major problem, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing nine interceptions. The Chiefs' 17 turnovers are five more than any other team. Cornerback James Bradberry (three interceptions) and safety Xavier McKinney (two) will be ready as the Giants try to get after Mahomes to force more mistakes. The former MVP has been sacked 14 times, and Azeez Ojulari (5.5 sacks) and Leonard Williams (4.5) made life miserable for Darnold last weekend.

How to make Giants vs. Chiefs picks

The model has zeroed in on Monday Night Football's Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. It's leaning Under the total, with the model suggesting both offenses will be one-dimensional. It also says that one side of the spread is hitting well over than 50 percent of the time. You can only get these picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Giants on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Giants spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 126-85 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.