Morning Digest: We've got election night guides for Congress, governor, legislature, and more

As Singiser explains, Democrats are largely playing defense at the legislative level as they defend their majorities in chambers like the Maine House and Senate, both chambers of the Nevada legislature, and the Minnesota House. Team Blue is also hoping to protect the unusual "Majority Coalition" of Democrats, Republicans, and independents that has run the Alaska House since 2017, especially since the state’s new instant-runoff system could empower moderates.

There are still some opportunities for Democrats to go on offense, though, as fairer maps should give them openings in chambers where the GOP has long relied on gerrymandering, especially the Michigan House and Senate. There are also very high stakes in heavily gerrymandered Wisconsin, where the GOP is trying to net the five seats in the Assembly and just one in the Senate that would give them the two-thirds majorities to circumvent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers if he wins his own hotly contested race for re-election. There’s a whole lot to check out, and you can find more about these states―as well as many more―in Singiser’s story.

Singer, meanwhile, gives us a thorough coast-by-coast rundown of Tuesday's main events. The first polls close at 6 PM ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, but things really pick up an hour later in Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. Please be sure to join us for our liveblog that night.

This guide will also come in handy for anyone looking to win the 2022 Daily Kos Elections prediction contest, generously sponsored by the one-of-a-kind Green's Bakery. Submit your guesses on a host of key midterm elections for a chance at one of four delectable gift bundles that include babka and a whole host of other assorted goodies. You have until 5 PM ET on Election Day to enter, so get to it. Babka—and bragging rights—are at stake!

Senate

● PA-Sen: Oprah Winfrey announced Thursday that she was supporting Democrat John Fetterman over Mehmet Oz, the Republican who rose to fame on her show in the early 2000s before she helped him launch his own television program. Politico writes that this statement came after months of work from Fetterman’s side: One Fetterman ally said, “John isn’t one to ask for endorsements … But if there was one that is really meaningful, for many reasons—it’s Oprah.” That same evening, the Senate Majority PAC began airing a new TV ad touting Winfrey’s endorsement.

● Polls:

AZ-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for KSAZ: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 48, Blake Masters (R): 48, Victor (L): 2 (Late Oct.: 45-43 Kelly)

AZ-Sen: Marist College: Kelly (D-inc): 49, Masters (R): 45 (Sept.: 51-41 Kelly)

AZ-Sen: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Kelly (D-inc): 47, Masters (R): 46

FL-Sen: Siena College for Spectrum News: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 51, Val Demings (D): 43 (Sept.: 48-41 Rubio)

FL-Sen: YouGov for Florida State University: Rubio (R-inc): 51, Demings (D): 44

GA-Sen: Moore Information (R) for Herschel Walker: Herschel Walker (R): 49, Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 44, Chase Oliver (L): 2 (Late Oct.: 46-42 Walker)

GA-Sen: Marist College: Warnock (D-inc): 49, Walker (R): 45 (Sept.: 47-42 Warnock)

GA-Sen: Patinkin Research Strategies (D) for The Majority Institute and Progress Georgia: Warnock (D-inc): 49, Walker (R): 45, Oliver (L): 4  

NV-Sen: Cygnal (R) for American Greatness: Adam Laxalt (R): 46, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 43

NV-Sen: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Cortez Masto (D-inc): 45, Laxalt (R): 44

OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): J.D. Vance (R): 49, Tim Ryan (D): 43 (Late Oct.: 48-44 Vance)

PA-Sen: Marist College: John Fetterman (D): 50, Mehmet Oz (R): 44 (Sept.: 51-41 Fetterman)

PA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF: Oz (R): 48, Fetterman (D): 46, Gerhardt (L): 2 (Late Oct.: 48-45 Oz)

NV-Sen: American Greatness is an election denier website.

Governors

● Polls:

AZ-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for KSAZ: Kari Lake (R): 51, Katie Hobbs (D): 48 (Late Oct.: 54-43 Lake)

AZ-Gov: Marist College: Hobbs (D): 48, Lake (R): 47 (Sept.: 46-45 Lake)

AZ-Gov: Alloy Analytics (R) for Roosevelt Strategy Group: Lake (R): 50, Hobbs (D): 46

AZ-Gov: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Lake (R): 49, Hobbs (D): 45

FL-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: Ron DeSantis (R-inc): 54, Charlie Crist (D): 42 (Sept.: 49-41 DeSantis)

FL-Gov: YouGov for Florida State University: DeSantis (R-inc): 53, Crist (D): 43

GA-Gov: Marist College: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 51, Stacey Abrams (D): 45 (Sept.: 50-44 Kemp)

GA-Gov: Patinkin Research Strategies (D) for The Majority Institute and Progress Georgia: Kemp (R-inc): 49, Abrams (D): 47, Hazel (L): 2

ME-Gov: SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote: Janet Mills (D-inc): 49, Paul LePage (R): 43, Sam Hunkler (I): 4

MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 54, Tudor Dixon (R): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 49-38 Whitmer)

MI-Gov: Mitchell Research & Communications (R) for MIRS: Whitmer (D-inc): 50, Dixon (R): 48 (Mid-Oct.: 49-47 Whitmer)

NV-Gov: Cygnal (R) for American Greatness: Joe Lombardo (R): 47, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 42

NV-Gov: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Lombardo (R): 45, Sisolak (D-inc): 43

OK-Gov: SoonerPoll for KWTV-DT and KOTV-DT: Joy Hofmeister (D): 48, Kevin Stitt (R-inc): 45, Ervin Yen (I): 3, Natalie Bruno (L): 2 (Early Oct.: 47-43 Hofmeister)

PA-Gov: Marist College: Josh Shapiro (D): 54, Doug Mastriano (R): 39 (Sept.: 53-40 Shapiro)

PA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF: Shapiro (D): 51, Mastriano (R): 43 (Late Oct.: 50-42 Shapiro)

House

● Polls:

MD-01: Washington College: Andy Harris (R-inc): 45, Heather Mizeur (D): 39

ME-02: SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote: Jared Golden (D-inc): 43, Bruce Poliquin (R): 40, Tiffany Bond (I): 8

MI-07: Mitchell Research & Communications (R) for MIRS: Elissa Slotkin (D-inc): 48, Tom Barrett (R): 48

NY-19: Siena College for Spectrum News: Josh Riley (D): 48, Marc Molinaro (R): 43 (Sept.: 46-41 Riley)

NY-22: Siena College for Spectrum News: Francis Conole (D): 46, Brandon Williams (R): 42 (Sept.: 45-40 Williams)

MD-01: This is the first survey we've seen of this 56-42 Trump seat on the Eastern Shore. The sample finds far-right Del. Dan Cox leading Democrat Wes Moore 46-36 here for governor, while unheralded fellow Republican Chris Chaffe enjoys a 48-43 edge over Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen.

ME-02: SurveyUSA simulated the instant-runoff process and found Golden emerging with a 54-46 win over Poliquin.

MI-07: Mitchell finds a 47-47 tie in this Lansing-based district for governor between Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Tudor Dixon; Biden would have prevailed here by a tiny margin in 2020.

NY-19: Siena shows Republican Lee Zeldin edging out Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul 50-45 in a seat Biden would have taken 51-47.

NY-22: The school gives Hochul a 48-45 edge in this 53-45 Biden constituency.

Attorneys General and Secretaries of State

● Polls:

AZ-AG: HighGround (R): Abe Hamadeh (R): 44, Kris Mayes (D): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 43-38 Hamadeh)

AZ-AG: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Hamadeh (R): 46, Mayes (D): 39

AZ-SoS: HighGround (R): Adrian Fontes (D): 45, Mark Finchem (R): 42 (Mid-Oct.: 42-41 Finchem)

AZ-SoS: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Finchem (R): 45, Fontes (D): 43

MI-AG: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Dana Nessel (D-inc): 48, Matthew DePerno (R): 42 (Mid-Oct.: 43-39 Nessel)

MI-AG: Mitchell Research & Communications (R) for MIRS: Nessel (D-inc): 47, DePerno (R): 44 (Mid-Oct.: 46-43 Nessel)

MI-SoS: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Jocelyn Benson (D-inc): 51, Kristina Karamo (R): 40 (Mid-Oct. 51-37 Benson)

MI-SoS: Mitchell Research & Communications (R) for MIRS: Benson (D-inc): 51, Karamo (R): 40 (Mid-Oct.: 49-40 Benson)

Ballot Measures

● MI Ballot: The Republican firm Mitchell Research & Communications' newest survey for for MIRS shows Proposal 3, would enshrine the right to reproductive freedom including abortion into the state constitution, ahead 51-46. This marks a small shift from the 50-47 edge Mitchell gave the pro-choice "yes" side a little while ago; other firms have shown Proposal 3 ahead by a larger margin.  

Mayors

● Los Angeles, CA Mayor: UC Berkeley's new poll for the Los Angeles Times finds Rep. Karen Bass edging out billionaire developer Rick Caruso just 45-41, a big shift from her 46-31 advantage in late September. The only numbers we've seen in the intervening time was a mid-October survey from the GOP firm J. Wallin Opinion Research for Southern California News Group, and it put Caruso ahead 40-37.

Bass, notes the L.A. Times' Benjamin Oreskes, is taking about the same share of the vote in both of its polls, while Caruso has made huge gains as he's utterly swamped the congresswoman in spending. The paper writes that the self-funding Caruso is on track to deploy a total of $26 million on advertising for the general election compared to $3.3 million for Bass. Oreskes also adds that Caruso has poured $13 million into canvassing operations.

Both candidates identify as Democrats in this officially nonpartisan race, but Bass has run ads reminding voters that Caruso is a former Republican who previously donated to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Caruso, for his part, has aired commercials arguing that he's an outsider who can bring change to a scandal-ridden city government.

Prosecutors

● Prosecutors and Sheriffs: Bolts is out with a detailed look at Tuesday's crucial elections for prosecutor and sheriff in counties across the country. This includes some big races we've profiled in recent weeks and months like the elections for sheriff of Los Angeles County, California; Maricopa County, Arizona attorney; and Hennepin County, Minnesota prosecutor, as well as some big ones we haven't discussed at length.

Bolts' list includes some big partisan battles such as the race for prosecutor of Douglas County, Nebraska around Omaha, where Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent Don Kleine faces a challenge from the left from Democrat Dave Pantos. Another major battle is taking place for state attorney of the Florida counties of Pasco and Pinellas, where appointed Republican Bruce Bartlett is going up against Democrat Allison Miller.

Another big one to watch is the contest to succeed retiring Democratic District Attorney David Prater in Oklahoma County, Oklahoma between ardent conservative Kevin Calvey and Democrat Vicki Behenna. Calvey, who lost a 2010 GOP runoff for the House to now-Sen. James Lankford, has pledged to drop the manslaughter indictments against five Oklahoma City officers charged with killing 15-year-old Stavian Rodriguez, who was allegedly surrendering after trying to rob a convenience store. "I would have shot him myself," Calvey said of Rodriguez at an event last year.

There's also the ugly race for sheriff of Bristol County, Massachusetts between Trumpist incumbent Thomas Hodgson and Democratic Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux. Hodgson on Monday put out a video declaring, "Everyday cities such as New York and Chicago have been taken over by violent criminals because politicians supported by George Soros and his followers don't believe that criminals should be in jail." Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey quickly condemned him, with Warren tweeting, "Tom Hodgson's racist and antisemitic dog whistles are appalling. So is his office's record of mistreating people in its care and custody."

There are also several contests taking place in heavily Democratic areas where partisanship isn't so much of a factor but where there are clear differences between the two candidates. In Alameda County, California, a progressive stronghold that's home to Oakland and Berkeley, the district attorney race pits civil rights attorney Pamela Price against prosecutor Terry Wiley. Retiring incumbent Nancy O'Malley is supporting Wiley, whom Bolts says "presents himself as a moderate alternative to Price."

There's a different dynamic going on in King County, Washington in the election to succeed retiring prosecutor Dan Satterberg, a former Republican who joined the Democratic Party in 2018. Satterberg is pulling for his chief of staff, Leesa Manion, who would be both the first woman and person of color to hold this post, over Federal Way Mayor Jim Ferrell. Bolts writes that, while "Manion has cast herself as a cautious reformer," Ferrell is running to her right with "tough-on-crime messaging."

There's a whole lot more about all these races and many more, and we recommend you check out Bolts' guide.

Obituaries

● Bill Sheffield: Alaska Democrat Bill Sheffield, who was elected to his one term as governor in 1982, died Friday at age 94. The Anchorage Daily News’ Sean Maguire’s obituary takes a deep look at Sheffield’s career in Last Frontier politics, including why his proudest accomplishment was consolidating most of the state into one timezone.