KC Chiefs vs. Bills Preview: AFC Championship Collision Course for ...

For the second time since November, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will square off in a matchup the football world will surely be watching. This instance, however, sees the stakes get raised even more as the AFC championship game has a trip to Super Bowl LIX hanging in the balance.

How does Kansas City match up with Buffalo, and how could Sunday evening's game unfold? Let's preview the conference title game and outline everything there is to know. For a refresher on the Bills' offseason, an in-depth breakdown of their tendencies and more, click here for Week 11's preview.

Kansas City: The Chiefs are in tremendous shape on the health front entering Sunday's game. Only four players appeared on the injury report earlier this week: Patrick Mahomes (ankle), left guard Mike Caliendo (shoulder), right tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) and cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle). All four of them will be active on game day after Kansas City carried zero injury designations into the weekend. With wideout Mecole Hardman's 21-day practice window expiring, there's no doubt surrounding who will be available for the biggest game of the year.

Buffalo: The Bills' injury situation, on the other hand, isn't quite as positive. On Friday morning, head coach Sean McDermott announced that safety Taylor Rapp (hip) would miss the AFC title game. Elsewhere, ailments for linebacker Matt Milano (hamstring) and cornerback Taron Johnson (neck/shoulder) didn't prevent them from practicing in full capacity on Friday. As cornerback Christian Benford remains in concussion protocol, he didn't practice on Friday due to a personal matter. He's questionable for the weekend.

Offensively, the Chiefs didn't do much in the divisional round to inspire confidence about a breakthrough in the conference title game. With that said, Mahomes has consistently elevated his play in the big dance and fares particularly well when playing Buffalo. In three postseason starts against the Bills, he has a 126.6 passer rating with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

That, paired with the duo of Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Xavier Worthy getting another week to solidify and Travis Kelce playing his best football, could mean better days are ahead. The quick passing game may thrive, as Mahomes completed nearly 84% of those passes this year (per NFL Pro data) and Buffalo's defense surrendered the eighth-highest success rate on them. Look for Worthy to get involved behind and near the line of scrimmage.

While Steve Spagnuolo isn't perfect at slowing down Josh Allen, no one is. He's a seemingly unstoppable force at this point. If anyone has a chance to do it, though, it's a future Hall of Fame defensive coordinator. Kansas City had an NFL-best 49 unblocked pressures this season. A steady pass rush with ever-changing looks and a secondary with multiple sticky man-coverage corners could challenge a great offensive line and quarterback. Having Watson and Charles Omenihu back for this matchup could be the difference.

Finding ways to neutralize an Allen-led offense is so much easier said than done. During the season, they held top-five rankings in EPA/play in both the run and pass games while also avoiding turnovers at a historic clip. The aforementioned offensive line is legitimate, and so is halfback James Cook. Should Khalil Shakir find matchups against Chamarri Conner like in Week 11, it could spell bad news for the Kansas City defense. Spagnuolo needs to bring the proverbial kitchen sink with him to throw at the Bills, as running things back with the November game plan simply won't be enough.

The BIlls' defense, while very imperfect, does a tremendous job of generating takeaways. Their pass rush, specifically, contains a quartet of scary names to face: Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa and Von Miller. With Joe Thuney once again starting at left tackle this weekend, he'll be challenged. Pass protection hasn't been a strength of Kansas City's as of late, so Mahomes being pressured could lead to one errant decision that makes the difference.

On the ground, Kareem Hunt came on strong late in the divisional round against the Houston Texans but the overall attack fell well short. Between he and Isiah Pacheco, someone will have to step up against a stout front and a defense that ranked sixth in rush EPA allowed in the regular season.

Full disclosure, this has been the most difficult Chiefs game to pick in quite some time. The Bills already have one win against Kansas City in impressive fashion this "season" and while a theoretical breakout game from the reigning champs' offense is still on the table, there haven't been predictive factors suggesting it. This borders on a coin flip. Expect a classic Mahomes-Allen thriller in a battle between the game's two best quarterbacks.

In the end, one more mistake is made by Buffalo and the game of margins that coaches constantly bring up will come to life as Andy Reid's team goes back to the Super Bowl.

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