NFL Week 18 Odds & Lines: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Las Vegas ...

Game Details

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
• When: Saturday, Jan. 7 (Week 18)
• Time: 1:30 p.m. PT
• Where: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)

Betting Odds Summary

• Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-105), Raiders +9.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Chiefs (-450), Raiders (+350)
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110)

Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel at the time of writing and subject to change.

The fate of the AFC’s top seed could be decided Saturday afternoon when the Kansas City Chiefs pay a visit to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Chiefs hold a half-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC and could lock up the conference with a win, depending on if the league chooses to replay the suspended Bills-Bengals game from Week 17. Even with a replay, the Bills would need to win out to usurp the Chiefs for the top spot, should the latter win this weekend.

The Raiders won’t be quick to roll over and hand their AFC West rivals the top spot. Fresh off of arguably their best overall performance of the year, albeit in a loss, Vegas has a golden opportunity to play spoiler.

As we continue, we will look at the betting markets and project what will unfold on the field Saturday.

The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point road favorites over the Raiders, and that line has since moved to -9.5. That line movement comes despite KC’s defense playing its worst football of the year, excluding a 24-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks, and the Raiders’ offense looking the most potent it has this season. 

Luckily for Kansas City, it has the ever-present ace in the hole in Patrick Mahomes. The star quarterback, and MVP favorite, leads the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and quarterback rating while posting a career-high completion percentage. His excellence has been downplayed as other MVP candidates have risen and fallen, but Mahomes is a dominant force on nearly every possession he trots onto the field.

Slowing down Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense is a big ask for anyone, especially a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in points allowed and 29th in passing defense. Vegas managed to force San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy into throwing the first interception of his professional career last weekend but still gave up 37 points and the game-losing drive in overtime.

Vegas’ chance to steal a win will come via its offense. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham stepped in for Derek Carr for the first time last weekend and wound up with 365 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions against the league’s best defense. He also involved Davante Adams (seven receptions, 153 yards, two TDs) in a way that Carr struggled to in weeks prior.

The Chiefs are yet to play a road playoff game (excluding the Super Bowl) in the Mahomes era, and it is unlikely they will rest their starters and pass up the opportunity to extend that streak. Watch for them to try to hang a ton of points on the Raiders and build momentum ahead of the postseason, regardless of what happens with the Bills.

We believe the most playable line is the over of 51.5 points because of Kansas City’s offensive firepower and defensive woes. We also think the Chiefs’ spread is viable but not a guarantee.

The moneyline does not provide enough value to bet outright unless risky bettors are looking to steal a significant profit by backing the Raiders.

As the Chiefs and Raiders prepare to kick off the final week of the 2022 NFL regular season, we have identified a few players that we believe will stand out in the player prop betting market. They are as follows.

• Travis Kelce Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)

The last time Kelce faced the Raiders, he only caught seven balls for 25 yards—that being said, four of those receptions were for touchdowns. The Raiders are subpar defending against tight ends, and with Kelce averaging nearly 10 more yards per game than his line, we trust he will have a nice outing.

• Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown scorer (-115)

Jacobs is having the best year of his young career and now gets to go against a defense that has been torn apart by most of its opponents. He has scored in four of his last six games and took one across the pylons when these two teams met earlier this season, setting him up for success again Saturday.

Creating a same-game parlay with FanDuel allows bettors to combine their favorite picks into one bet with greater odds. However, every leg of the parlay must come true for it to cash, making it harder to hit.

Here, we have created a same-game parlay for the Chiefs-Raiders game with +983 odds, which would pay $1,083 for a $100 bet or $983 profit.

Here’s the parlay:

• Mecole Hardman anytime touchdown scorer 
• Jarrett Stidham Over 24.5 passing yards
• Over 47.5 total points
• Chiefs -5.5

Hardman is returning from an extended stay on the injured list. If there is anything we know about Chiefs coach Andy Reid, it is that he likes to get everyone involved, and he will want to get his speedy wideout back into rhythm before the playoffs.

Stidham threw for 365 yards last week, but that is about as far as his sample size (with enough opportunities) extends. We are banking on the Chiefs’ poor defense once again, allowing him to rack up enough yards.

We said earlier that we liked the over, but we are moving the line down just a bit to add breathing room. 

Finally, we are taking an alternate spread of Chiefs -5.5 to lessen the risk of the regular line (Chiefs -9.5) and protect against critical numbers such as six and seven while still adding value to the parlay.