Monday Night Football odds, line, spread: Broncos vs. Bills ...

It could be a pivotal game for both teams when the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium on Monday Night Football. The Bills (5-4) are desperate to get on a roll and get back on track to make the NFL playoff picture for a fifth straight season. The Broncos (3-5) haven't made the postseason since 2015, but if they can keep it together, there is plenty of time left to get back in the NFL playoff bracket. Denver won consecutive games, including a 24-9 victory against the AFC West-rival Chiefs, before getting their bye last week. The Bills faced fellow AFC contender Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football last week and lost 24-18 on the road.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The SportsLine consensus lists Buffalo as a 7.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 47.5 in the latest Broncos vs. Bills odds. Before making any Bills vs. Broncos picks, you need to see what SportsLine NFL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Severance quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. In fact, he is 16-5 on his last 21 NFL picks involving the Broncos. Anybody following him is way up.

Now, Severance has locked in on Broncos vs. Bills from every angle and locked in his picks and NFL predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and trends for Bills vs. Broncos: 

• Broncos vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -7.5
• Broncos vs. Bills Over/Under: 47.5 points
• Broncos vs. Bills money line: Denver +268, Buffalo -348
• DEN: Broncos are 7-5 ATS in their past 12 games as underdogs
• BUF: Bills are 5-8 ATS in their past 13 games as home favorites
• Broncos vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Broncos vs. Bills live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Bills can cover

Josh Allen has thrown for at least 250 yards in three straight games and is fourth in the league in passing yards (2,423). He has completed 71% of his throws, second-best in the NFL, but has had turnover issues. He will be determined to protect the ball and will be fired up playing in primetime at home. The Bills have won 11 of their past 12 home games and beaten Denver by at least 10 in their past three meetings. The most recent was a 48-19 victory in 2020.

Allen threw for 359 yards in that matchup and Stefon Diggs caught 11 balls for 147 yards. Diggs is third in the NFL with 834 receiving yards on an NFL-best 70 receptions. The Broncos have the NFL's worst scoring and total defense, allowing 406 yards and 28.3 points per game. The Bills have five players with at least five sacks, and Russell Wilson has been sacked 26 times. See which team to back here.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver is 4-1 ATS in its past five games coming off a bye week, and the Broncos will hope to exploit Buffalo's propensity for turnovers. Allen has thrown nine interceptions, and Denver had five takeaways in the victory against the Chiefs. Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson has just four interceptions and has been more steady in his second season with the team. The 34-year-old ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating and is completing 66% of his throws and has 16 TD passes.

The Broncos' offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play, ranking 10th in the NFL. Receiver Courtland Sutton has 33 catches for 388 yards and has scored in three straight games. Running back Javonte Williams has topped 80 rushing yards in the past two and had a career-high 30 touches in Week 8. The maligned Denver defense has allowed just 45 total points over the past three games, two of those against the Chiefs and two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Broncos vs. Bills picks

Severance has analyzed this matchup, and while he is leaning Under on the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bills vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Broncos spread you need to jump on, all from the red-hot expert on a 16-5 roll on Broncos picks, and find out.