Game Predictions Bills at Dolphins Week 2 2024

Ben Rolfe | Pro Football Network

The first week for both of these teams showed us areas of concern but also how resilient each can be under pressure.

Both mounted comebacks in different ways, with Josh Allen and the offense putting the team on their back, while the Dolphins relied behind their defense to shut down the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half.

That gives us the intriguing potential of strength vs. strength when the Bills' offense is on the field and weakness vs. weakness when the Dolphins' offense has the ball.

However, it seems crazy to call a Dolphins offense that was among the top three in total offensive expected points added (EPA) last season a bad unit after just one game.

That is why I still favor Miami here. The offense should not be as bad as it looked in Week 1, while the Bills' defense is a complete unknown with all their changes.

The Dolphins are also 5-1 ATS when facing AFC East teams during September over the last three years, although that one failure to cover was a drubbing at the hands of Buffalo in Miami.

There is also the question of Allen's left wrist, which was heavily taped during the game. Now, it is not his throwing arm, so that removes some concern, but it could make him hesitant to use his legs, as well as nervous with bodies around him in the pocket if he cannot use that arm to brace when tackled.

The prime-time element in this game somewhat removes the heat factor, which should benefit the Bills.

There are too many unknowns here, so I am passing on the line but looking towards the under.

Each of the Bills' past three road games in Miami has gone under by at least 13 points, and all of the Dolphins' last five AFC East games in September have gone under.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 20