Arkansas vs. Colgate odds, line: 2021 NCAA Tournament picks, first-round predictions from proven model

The 2021 NCAA Tournament gets underway on Friday with a jam-packed slate of games. One of the earliest contests features the No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks taking on the No. 14 seed Colgate Raiders. Arkansas is 22-6 on the season after falling to LSU in the SEC Tournament. Colgate is a blistering 14-1 and the Raiders won the Patriot League title.

Tip-off is at 12:45 p.m. ET at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Razorbacks as 8.5-point favorites, down from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 161.5 in the latest Arkansas vs. Colgate odds. Before making any Colgate vs. Arkansas picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Arkansas vs. Colgate in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Colgate vs. Arkansas:

• Arkansas vs. Colgate spread: Arkansas -8.5
• Arkansas vs. Colgate over-under: 161.5 points
• Arkansas vs. Colgate money line: Arkansas -430, Colgate +330
• ARK: The Razorbacks are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
• COL: The Raiders are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why Arkansas can cover 

Arkansas is an above-average offensive team that ranked No. 3 in the SEC during conference play. The Razorbacks turn the ball over on only 17.4 percent of offensive possessions, and Colgate is one of the worst teams in the country in producing turnovers on defense. Arkansas also has the edge in athleticism, which manifests in grabbing 31.7 percent of its own missed shots on the offensive glass. The Razorbacks are a quality 2-point shooting team, making almost 52 percent of their attempts, and they are a good free throw shooting team, converting 73.7 percent this season. While their athleticism helps on offense, it also aids in constructing a top-15 defense in the country. 

Arkansas allows opponents to post a 47.6 percent effective field goal shooting mark, down from the national average of 50.1 percent, and the Razorbacks allow fewer than 47 percent on 2-point shots and 33 percent on 3-point shots. The Razorbacks force a turnover on more than 20 percent of defensive possessions, and they secure the defensive glass at an above-average rate. Arkansas also protects the rim well, posting a 13.4 percent block rate that is one of the best in the nation and preventing opponents from generating free throw attempts on a consistent basis.

Why Colgate can cover

The Raiders led the Patriot League in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they are a balanced, effective team. Colgate leads the entire country in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to convert only 26.1 percent of their attempts. The Raiders are also a good defensive rebounding team, securing 74.6 percent of available rebounds, and they land in the top 35 nationally in free throw prevention. 

On the offensive end, Colgate is a top-five team in the country in shooting efficiency, posting an effective field goal shooting mark of 57.0 percent. That includes the No. 3 ranking in the country in 3-point shooting (40.0 percent), and Colgate is also a top-20 group in 2-point accuracy at 55.4 percent. The Raiders take care of the ball at an elite rate, turning the ball over on only 13.7 percent of possessions, and that is key against a havoc-creating defense from Arkansas.

How to make Colgate vs. Arkansas picks

The model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 157 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Colgate vs. Arkansas? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.