Purdue Basketball: Minnesota Preview

University of Minnesota

Record

Big 10: 6-6

Overall: 15-8

KenPom: 76

Basic Information

Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota

Type of School: Public Land-Grant University

Mascot: Goldy Gopher

Head Coach - Ben Johnson

Seasons at Minnesota (including current season): 3

Other Head Coaching Jobs: None

Career College Record: 37-47

Regular Season Conference Championships: 0

Conference Tournament Championships: 0

NCAA Appearances: 0

Final 4 Appearances: 0

Kenpom Style of Play

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Adj. Efficiency: 110.5 (93)

Avg. Poss. Length: 18 (246)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 99.6 (62)

Avg. Poss. Length: 17.1 (105)

Tempo

Adj. Tempo: 66.9 (232)

Kenpom 4 Factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Effective FG%: 54.4 (37)

Turnover %: 18 (235)

Off. Reb. %: 31.9 (85)

FTA/FGA: 34.8 (126)

Defense

Effective FG%: 47.6 (46)

Turnover %: 16.6 (223)

Off. Reb. %: 28.4 (150)

FTA/FGA: 29 (89)

Personnel

Minnesota on Offense

The Gophers should be one of the hottest teams in the Big 10. They were in the midst of a 3-game win streak, including wins against Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan State, before Iowa pulled the rug from under them in the 2nd half of their last game, making up a 20-point difference and knocking off the Gophers 90-85.

Granted, the comeback occurred with star Gopher Dawson Garcia on the bench with what is delicately being referred to as an injury to the groin region (winces). In fact, Garcia’s ahem, groin region was in such bad shape that he is questionable for tonight’s game. Thoughts and prayers to Dawson.

When Garcia is on the court, he’s an issue. He takes 27.4% of the Gophers’ shots and is 79th in the nation with 5.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes (Zach is #1 at 9.2). Before being felled by a crotch shot, he had Iowa in hell. He ended the game with 18 points on 7-8 shooting, including a 1-1 performance from deep. That’s a positive sign for Minnesota because despite his reputation as a floor-stretching big, he’s averaging 29% from deep. Word of warning though, he’s been hot over the last 5 games, hitting 7 of his last 14 combined in those games.

This is when having a guy like Trey Kaufmann-Renn on your squad pays dividends. Zach can switch off the more mobile and dangerous Garcia and defend the less offensively adept Pharrell Payne, much like he did against Illinois when he drew Ty Rodgers instead of Coleman-Hawkins. Most teams can’t put two solid post defenders on the court at the same time, but Purdue isn’t most teams.

Garcia and Payne wrecked Iowa in the first half of their last game. Minnesota likes to iso the left-handed Garcia in the mid-range and then let him work the opposing center. Payne hangs out on the weak side looking to clean up any trash when his defender inevitably slides over to help on the Garcia drive. I expect TKR to go one-on-one with Garcia in this one. He has the size to defend the post and still moves well enough to cut off the drive. Iowa didn’t have anyone capable of staying in front of him.

When they’re not playing through Garcia, Howard transfer point guard Elijah Hawkins makes the offense go. In fact, Hawkins currently leads the Big 10 with 7.6 assists a game. Braden is a half-assist back, sitting at 7.1 per. Not only can Purdue take the W tonight, they can help Smith take the assist lead. In order to achieve this, the Boilermakers need to play Hawkins to pass and force the small guard to finish at the rim or in the mid-range instead of collapsing and giving him dump-offs and kick-outs for easy assists. If your team is in rotation, Hawkins will find the open man. Putting TKR on Garcia and allowing Zach to play in the lane more could dissuade Hawkins from attacking the rim off the pick and roll as much as he normally does, but still, Purdue needs to do their work out front and not give him straight line drives to the basket.

Freshman guard Cam Christie might be the most talented player on this team. His brother, Max, played for Michigan State and you can see maturity in his game that most freshmen don’t possess. It’s no coincidence that the Gophers turned their season around right about the time Cam went on a heater. In the last 4 games, he put up 17 against Penn State, 15 against Northwestern, 19 against Michigan State (to lead the team), and 15 against Iowa. He’s the guy Hawkins kicks to when he collapses the defense. He has the bright green light from deep and hits 41% of his 3’s. His 5/7 performance from 3 against Michigan State essentially won the game for his team. He’s 11 of 22 from outside the arc over the last 3 games and will look to continue his hot shooting against the Boilers. Like most 6’6” wings, he could be a matchup issue for Purdue’s 3-guard lineup, but every time I say that, the Boilers shut down the opposing wing.

If Christie isn’t open on the perimeter, there’s always Mike Mitchell. He’s coming off his own 5-8 3-point performance against Iowa. He’s hitting 39% on the season but hit 44% from deep for Pepperdine last season. He’s not going to beat you inside the arc like Christie can, but his ability to catch and shoot is elite. He’s hit 4 or more 3’s 4 times this season. He’s another player Purdue can’t afford to help off of in this game.

It’s strange; I see Minnesota as essentially Purdue with Garcia instead of Edey. They play a 3-man game with Hawkins as the ball handler, Garcia as the screener, and Payne as the rebounder. They spread the floor with Christie and Mitchell, two knockdown shooters, and make teams decide to either defend the rim or defend shooters. If a team chooses to defend the rim, Hawkins rings up assists on kick-outs. If a team decides to stay home, Hawkins and Garcia are more than capable of winning the game on their own. We’ll see if they can pull it off against Purdue.

Minnesota on Defense

Every defensive game plan against Purdue starts and stops with Zach Edey. He’s such a unique player, it’s often hard to suss out how a team will guard the Boilermakers based on how they defend everyone else.

The Gophers didn’t double either of Iowa’s big men in the post, and they’re both decent offensive players. Instead they played straight up and stayed out of rotation. I have no idea if that’s possible against Purdue and Edey but I think they might try that “let Zach eat and hang with shooters” game plan. It’s probably just as effective as any other strategy.

The issue they run into is Garcia.

They need him on offense. Payne is a sturdy 6’9”, 255, but is no match for the largest former hockey player in existence. Keep in mind also that Payne averages 4 fouls a game, and this is the first time he’s gone up against the black hole of fouls that is Zach Edey. He might pick up 4 in the first half. In theory, that means Garcia ends up on Edey, but they could bring in seldom used 6’11”, 285 pound senior Jack Wilson to lean on, and foul, Zach. If I’m Matt Painter, I don’t mind Minnesota going away from their normal game plan to try and hang with Purdue.

One thing to watch is the Gopher’s token zone press. They press to slow down the game, and Purdue often falls into that trap. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them press more than normal against Purdue. Running with Purdue and actually playing basketball is death against the Boilermakers. I think Ben Johnson is going to try and slow this down to a crawl and hope his offense carries the day in a low possession game.

It’s not the worst idea in the world.

Purdue on Defense

Every defensive game plan against Purdue starts and stops with Zach Edey. He’s such a unique player; it’s often hard to suss out how a team will guard the Boilermakers based on how they defend everyone else.

The Gophers didn’t double either of Iowa’s big men in the post, and they’re both decent offensive players. Instead, they played straight up and stayed out of rotation. I have no idea if that’s possible against Purdue and Edey, but I think they might try that “let Zach eat and hang with shooters” game plan. It’s probably just as effective as any other strategy.

The issue they run into is Garcia.

They need him on offense. Payne is a sturdy 6’9”, 255, but is no match for the largest former hockey player in existence. Keep in mind also that Payne averages 4 fouls a game, and this is the first time he’s gone up against the black hole of fouls that is Zach Edey. He might pick up 4 in the first half. In theory, that means Garcia ends up on Edey, but they could bring in seldom-used 6’11”, 285-pound senior Jack Wilson to lean on, and foul, Zach. If I’m Matt Painter, I don’t mind Minnesota going away from their normal game plan to try and hang with Purdue.

One thing to watch is the Gopher’s token zone press. They press to slow down the game, and Purdue often falls into that trap. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them press more than normal against Purdue. Running with Purdue and actually playing basketball is death against the Boilermakers. I think Ben Johnson is going to try and slow this down to a crawl and hope his offense carries the day in a low possession game.

It’s not the worst idea in the world.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue - 82

Minnesota - 65

Confidence - 94%

Drew

Purdue 72

Minnesota 64

KenPom likes the Boilermakers in a runaway, but sometimes I think the metrics lean too heavily on the entire season. This isn’t the same team that got smacked around by San Francisco or dropped a home game to Missouri. Outside of Purdue, no team has been hotter in the month of February, and if not for Garcia’s injury, would be on a 4-game winning streak (in my humble opinion).

This is a tough one, but I’ll never go against this team in Mackey Arena. Thank the deity of your choice this thing isn’t in the Barn for multiple reasons. In the end, Purdue’s offense is too efficient. Minnesota turns the ball over on 18% (235) of their possessions and doesn’t force many turnovers on defense. They also shoot 68% from the free-throw line, which is never good when the margin of error is this small.

The Gophers hang close most of the game, give everyone heartburn, but can’t close it out. Purdue dominates the last 10 minutes of the game and remains undefeated at home.