MLB trade deadline comps: Using past deals to tell us about player ...

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It’s the question on every sports talk radio caller’s mind this week, with different variations. Who says no? Who hangs up first? What’s he worth?

They boil down to: What’s it going to take?

With the trade deadline just over a week away, let’s dive into what it might take to acquire that missing piece to get a team over the hump. To get a better sense of how some players on the trade block might be valued, I looked at their historical predecessors. Player X looks a lot like Player Y from a few years back; what did it take to acquire Player Y?

We did this over the weekend with Shohei Ohtani. Let’s do it (more briefly) with some of the biggest names on the trade block. Note: Statistics are through Saturday’s games, and wins above replacement are according to FanGraphs.

Marcus Stroman. (David Banks / USA Today)

Age: 32Contract Status: Owed $8.4 million through the end of the season, then can opt out of the remaining one year and $21 million on his contract. (Stroman’s player option increases to $23 million for 2024 if he pitches 160 innings this season.)2023 Stats: 10-7, 3.09 ERA, 21.1 percent strikeout rate, 2.5 WAR in 122 1/3 innings

Comparison: Yu Darvish, 2017

Stroman currently is in the midst of a better season than Darvish was having with Texas when he was traded to the Dodgers (4.01 ERA in 137 innings), though the 10 runs Darvish allowed in his final start as a Ranger skew those numbers. (His ERA was 3.44 the week before the deadline.) Stroman’s 2.5 WAR is pretty much in line with Darvish’s 2.7 WAR at the time of the trade.

In dealing Darvish, the Rangers received Willie Calhoun (a consensus top-100 prospect), A.J. Alexy (a recent 11th-round pick who’d cracked LA’s top 20 prospects) and Brendon Davis (an A-ball outfielder that was a fringe top-30 prospect in the Dodgers system). Because of the levels he’d reached before his 2015 Tommy John surgery, Darvish was viewed as more of an ace than Stroman is right now. That means this type of package is probably the ceiling for Chicago in a Stroman deal.

Age: 28Contract Status: Owed $4.2 million through the end of the season. Mutual option for $25 million in 2024 with a $5 million buyout.2023 Stats: .319/.371/.539/.918, 143 wRC+, 13 HR, 2.7 WAR in 283 plate appearances

Comparison: Carlos Beltrán, 2016

Let’s see. How many other examples are there of a guy who:

• Recently won the MVP
• Turned around and was maybe the worst everyday player in the majors
• Rebounded to look much closer to his old self

Happens all the time, right?

Obviously, Bellinger’s career arc is unique. Beltrán in 2016 — the third and least-ballyhooed time he’d been moved at the deadline — isn’t an obvious comp as a trade candidate. For one, Bellinger is 28 and Beltrán was 39 in 2016, and Bellinger is having a better season to this point (2.7 WAR to 2.3). But hear me out.

First, their recent body of work coming into the season was very similar: Bellinger was worth 1.8 WAR last season and was below replacement level the year before that. Beltrán was worth 1.8 WAR in 2015 and was below replacement level the year before that.

Second, the rental prices in 2016 were higher than they are now, so a better Bellinger may still be worth about as much as Beltrán then.

The Yankees received Dillon Tate (a recent top-five pick and top-100 prospect) and A-ball pitchers Erik Swanson and Nick Green from Texas for Beltrán.

The other possible comp here is one the Cubs are familiar with: Kris Bryant in ’21. Bryant, too, was several years removed from his MVP season and had fallen off — though not nearly to the extent Bellinger did. However, Bellinger’s recent hot streak means he’s compiled more wins above replacement this season than Bryant did ahead of his trade to San Francisco. Bellinger is pretty clearly the best position player likely to move at this point, and that could drive up the price.

For Bryant, Chicago got back outfielder Alexander Canario (a top-10 prospect in the Giants’ system who looked like he was breaking out) and Double-A pitcher Caleb Killian (who had posted very strong results that season).

Jordan Montgomery. (Brad Mills / USA Today)

Age: 30Contract Status: Owed $3.4 million through the end of the season, then a free agent.2023 Stats: 6-7, 3.14 ERA, 22.1 percent strikeout rate, 2.5 WAR in 109 innings

Comparison: J.A. Happ, 2018

Yes yes, you know how it is: Every left-hander must be compared to another left-hander, and that’s especially true in the Fraternity of Deadline Southpaws Acquired By St. Louis. I’m actually looking at the time Happ was dealt from Toronto to the Bronx at the deadline — the fourth of the five times Happ was moved in July during his career.

While Montgomery’s 2023 is so far better than Happ’s 2018, he didn’t quite have the established track record Happ did at the time; Happ was two years removed from a 20-win season that garnered him Cy Young votes with the Jays. Nevertheless, Montgomery offers the same kind of high-floor reliability that made Happ appealing at so many different deadlines.

The Blue Jays received Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in exchange for Happ. Drury was struggling in his third full season in the bigs after two solid years with Arizona, and McKinney had just debuted with the Yankees, a few years removed from being a top-100 prospect. (This was already the third time McKinney had been traded at the deadline as a prospect, having previously been moved in deals for Jeff Samardzija and Aroldis Chapman.)

Age: 29Contract Status: Owed $3.5 million through the end of the season, then a free agent.2023 Stats: 6-6, 3.96 ERA, 25.2 percent strikeout rate, 1.3 WAR in 116 innings

Comparison: Kyle Gibson, 2021

It’s more difficult than expected to find a good comp for Giolito (or Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez, for that matter, who I’d rank as more appealing than Giolito) — a pitcher with an established floor but some potential to hit a higher ceiling, who isn’t yet 30. The Gibson comp works in some ways and doesn’t in others.

Gibson had made the 2021 All-Star team and was in the midst of a career year, but one inevitably headed for regression. The right-hander did offer an additional year of team control.

The Phillies acquired Gibson, reliever Ian Kennedy and prospect Hans Crouse (recently a top-100 prospect) in exchange for one of their top prospects, Spencer Howard (a current top-100 prospect), Josh Gessner (rookie-ball pitcher) and Kevin Gowdy (A-ball pitcher). The White Sox could try to bring back a better individual prospect, the way the Rangers did, by packaging Giolito with additional players.

Age: 27Contract Status: Owed $1.8 million through the end of the season, then a free agent2023 Stats: 7-6, 4.39 ERA, 22.2 percent strikeout rate, 1.5 WAR in 104 2/3 innings

Comparison: Noah Syndergaard, 2022

Like Syndergaard a year ago, Flaherty is a supremely talented right-hander who’s delivered elite results in the increasingly distant past and is now working his way back from health issues. Flaherty is younger than Syndergaard was, hasn’t shown as distinct a drop-off in stuff as Syndergaard had, and won’t cost as much financially the rest of the season. Syndergaard was pitching better on a rate basis last season, though with fewer innings as the Angels protected him in their six-man rotation.

All this is to say that the return for Syndergaard — former No. 1 pick but at-the-time post-hype prospect Mickey Moniak and A-ball outfielder Jadiel Sanchez — is probably on the low end for a Flaherty trade.

Age: 24Contract Status: Owed $200,000 through the end of the season; arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. Under team control through 2026.2023 Stats: .232/.340/.359/.699, 100 wRC+, 5 HR, 0.6 WAR in 212 plate appearances

Age: 27Contract Status: Owed $700,000 through the end of the season; arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter. Under team control through 2025.2023 Stats: .290/.337/.488/.826, 121 wRC+, 16 HR, 2.1 WAR in 421 plate appearances

Comparison: Tommy Pham, 2018

Carlson plays for the Cardinals, Thomas played for the Cardinals, so why not stick with a comp from the Cardinals? Neither Carlson nor Thomas has approached the peak Pham showed as a late bloomer for St. Louis; he received down-ballot MVP votes in his first full season in the majors in 2017. Carlson does have considerable prospect pedigree to go along with decent if, so far, unfulfilling big-league results. Thomas, who went to the Nats for Jon Lester two deadlines ago, is in the midst of a breakout season. He comes with one fewer year of control than Carlson, who can also play center field.

In 2018, Pham had 3 1/2 years of team control remaining when St. Louis sent him to Tampa Bay alongside international bonus slot money for Double-A starter Génesis Cabrera, Double-A reliever Roel Ramirez and Triple-A outfielder Justin Williams. Cabrera and Williams were considered solid prospects, though outside publications’ top-100 lists.

David Robertson. (John Jones / USA Today)

Age: 38Contract Status: Owed $3.4 million through the end of the season, then a free agent2023 Stats: 4-2, 14 saves, 2.08 ERA, 28.2 percent strikeout rate, 0.7 WAR in 43 1/3 innings

Comparison: David Robertson, 2022

Sometimes it’s really tough to come up with comps for player returns, and sometimes the best comp is staring back in the mirror.

Robertson’s stats are remarkably similar to where they were a year ago: His ERA is 0.15 better, his WHIP 0.026 better.

In dealing Robertson to Philadelphia, the Cubs landed right-handed pitcher Ben Brown. At the start of 2022, Brown was a fringe top-20 prospect in a mediocre Philadelphia system — a likely reliever. By July, he was in the midst of a breakout season that made the rotation look like his eventual home. Since the trade, Brown has continued to ascend prospect rankings, to the point that he’s nearing top-100 status.

The Mets won’t get a prospect equivalent to what Brown is right now back for Robertson. But they should be looking for a similar profile — someone rising fast with the potential to fully break out.

Age: 26Contract Status: Owed $600,000 through the end of the season, then a free agent2023 Stats: 1-6, 8 saves, 3.76 ERA, 31.5 percent strikeout rate, 0.8 WAR in 40 2/3 innings

Comparison: Craig Kimbrel, 2021

I have to admit: This comparison is the biggest stretch here. When Kimbrel went across town from the Cubs to the White Sox, he was one of the sport’s most accomplished closers in the midst of a revitalized season: His ERA was 0.49, his WHIP was 0.709, and he had an additional, albeit expensive, year of team control remaining.

Hicks has none of that. But, since taking over the closing role in St. Louis, the 26-year-old has been electrifying, with a 1.93 ERA since June 14. Like Kimbrel, this period of dominance follows some rocky times — times you’re more willing to ignore when you’re just hoping to ride the momentum for another two months.

In sending Kimbrel to the south side, the Cubs brought back Nick Madrigal (a top-25 prospect who had played well in the majors before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury in June) and Codi Heuer (a controllable big-league reliever). The Cardinals will not get particularly close to that package back, but Hicks’ tantalizing stuff makes him the kind of pitcher who may fetch quite a bit more than the stats suggest he would.

(Top photo of Lucas Giolito: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)