Tropical Storm Idalia Map: Forecast and Arrival Times Updates

31 Aug 2023

The New York Times

Tropical Storm Idalia Map Forecast and Arrival Times Updates

See the path and estimated wind arrival times for Idalia.

Idalia was a tropical storm in the North Atlantic Ocean on early Thursday Eastern time, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The tropical storm had sustained wind speeds of 60 miles per hour. Follow our coverage here.

Tropical-storm-force winds, with sustained speeds of at least 39 miles per hour, typically arrive as weather conditions begin to deteriorate, and experts say their estimated arrival time is a good deadline for completing storm preparations and evacuating if asked to do so.

Arrival times and likelihood of damaging winds

—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——
—————	——	——	——

Idalia is expected to bring excessive rainfall — from four to eight inches — along the path of the storm, from Florida through the Carolinas. The area of heaviest rain could shift east or west depending on the storm’s exact path.

The damaging winds from Idalia are causing power outages along the storm’s path.

Idalia is the ninth named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2023.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near-normal” amount. On Aug. 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upward, to 14 to 21 storms.

There were 14 named storms last year, after two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons in which forecasters ran out of names and had to resort to backup lists. (A record 30 named storms formed in 2020.)

This year features an El Niño pattern, which arrived in June. The intermittent climate phenomenon can have wide-ranging effects on weather around the world, and it typically impedes the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.

In the Atlantic, El Niño increases the amount of wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction from the ocean or land surface into the atmosphere. Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and the instability caused by increased wind shear makes those conditions less likely. (El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific, reducing the amount of wind shear.)

At the same time, this year’s heightened sea surface temperatures pose a number of threats, including the ability to supercharge storms.

Sources and notes

Tracking map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: Map shows probabilities of at least five percent. The forecast includes the five days starting up to three hours before the storm’s latest reported time and location.

Arrivals table Sources: New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data (arrival times); U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth (geographic locations); Google (time zones) | Notes: The table shows predicted arrival times of tropical-storm-force winds at selected cities if there is a chance such winds could reach those locations. “Earliest possible” times are times when, if tropical-storm-force winds do arrive, there is at least a 10 percent chance they will arrive at the time shown. “Most likely” times are times when, if tropical-storm-force winds do arrive, there is an equal chance that such winds will arrive before and after the time shown.