Opinion: Briggs' election predictions, which you definitely should not ...

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Democrat Jennifer McCormick visits phone bank volunteers in Indianapolis

Jennifer McCormick visited Indiana teachers and members of the Indiana State Teachers Association from on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, in Indianapolis.

The election is almost over and we'll know the actual results soon enough. But, in the interest of punditry accountability, I'm putting my assumptions out for you here.

This is not going to be a hopeful column for Democrats, so let me start with a disclaimer. When I've made election predictions in the past, I've been accused of suppressing the vote by demoralizing one side or the other with my view that they're probably going to lose. That's not what this is about.

Briggs: Jennifer McCormick can win, but needs a Micah Beckwith referendum

I offer predictions as a way of putting my analysis on the record. People who operate in the opinion space often toss out forward-looking statements and forget about them, knowing few people keep track of whether we know what we're talking about.

I try to know what I'm talking about. So, as I write predictions below, I'm also assigning confidence levels to them in parentheses. When I say I'm 85% confident that something will happen, that means I'd expect to have about the same chance of being wrong as Tyrese Haliburton has of missing a free throw. It happens, but it should only happen 15 out of 100 times.

Make sense? Great. Here are my predictions, which you definitely should not trust or factor into your voting decisions.

Mike Braun (along with Micah Beckwith) wins the Indiana gubernatorial election (85%)

I was a Jennifer McCormick skeptic early on. I didn't think she had a great explanation for why she used to be a Republican and then popped up as a Democrat running for governor, aside from seeing an opportunity, and I didn't think she had a strong message.

She's changed my mind. As I wrote last week, McCormick has run a substantive and disciplined campaign tailored to Indiana's median voter, who has been all but left behind by Republicans. McCormick's running mate, Terry Goodin, is also a perfect prototype of a Democrat who can attract Republican-leaning voters.

Together, they have a record of being sympathetic to Republicans' concerns on social issues while working to move Indiana forward on matters ranging from abortion to taxes. Democrats have the right gubernatorial ticket at the right time.

They're running against Republican Sen. Mike Braun, an awful senator who got bored during his only term in the office he bought and ran for governor for no apparent reason, and Micah Beckwith, an ideologue who doesn't even try to relate to anyone outside of his evangelical Christian bubble. It's a vulnerable duo. 

Unfortunately for McCormick and Goodin, simply being better than your opponents isn't enough to win elections.

Braun and Beckwith have a baked-in advantage of running as Republicans in a red state where many people vote straight party. On top of that, Donald Trump will be on the ballot again. Trump has turned out infrequent voters and tipped the scales even further toward Republicans in Indiana.

Democrats can find reasons for hope — indeed, having any chance at all puts Democrats ahead of where they were four years ago.

McCormick's success, and her opponents' weakness, has brought real money into the race. Beckwith's extraordinary media presence also has given the Republican ticket more negative attention than usual, notably extending outside Central Indiana to voters who wouldn't normally see Republicans in an unfavorable light.

McCormick has a chance. I just don't think it's a great one.

Todd Rokita wins re-election as attorney general (90%)

You can apply much of my logic above to the Indiana attorney general's race, where Democrat Destiny Wells is a strong candidate running against incumbent Republican Todd Rokita, who has mainly used the office to promote his brand and career.

Rokita has the same structural advantages as Braun and Beckwith enjoy in the gubernatorial race. Plus, unlike that contest, there is no Libertarian on the ballot to take votes away from Rokita.

Wells has an even tougher climb than McCormick and Goodin.

Jim Banks becomes Indiana's next U.S. senator (100%)

Rep. Jim Banks, a deeply flawed candidate, will win a U.S. Senate seat without facing legitimate competition. It's one of the most remarkable Indiana election stories of 2024.

Danny Lopez defeats Matt McNally in Indiana House District 39 (60%)

The backlash over Danny Lopez's anti-trans ad could well turn the tide against him and elevate Matt McNally to victory in a race Democrats desperately want to win. But I'd bet on it doing the opposite. 

Whatever you thought of the ad — I thought it was cruel — Lopez likely signed off on it based on evidence showing he'd benefit from bringing the issue to the top of voters' minds. The intense media scrutiny only amplified his campaign's message.

That aside, Lopez is a moderate Republican running in a district where that brand of politics is still popular, even if the northern suburbs are moving left. Lopez also has raised a lot more money than McNally.

Republicans maintain supermajorities in the Indiana General Assembly (70%)

Democrats need to flip four seats in the Indiana House of Representatives to break the Republican supermajority in that chamber. It's probably the party's best chance at scoring a major win in this election cycle.

It sounds like a modest goal. But, if Democrats can do it, far-right Republicans would have a tougher time ramming through partisan bills without compromise.

Absolutely everything has to go right for Democrats. At-risk Democratic incumbents need to fend off their challenges, and the party has little to no margin for error in other competitive races, such as House District 39. I don't see it happening this year.

Kamala Harris wins the presidential election (51%)

This is a coin-flip election. A narrow victory for either candidate wouldn't surprise me. I also wouldn't be surprised by a lopsided outcome in either direction.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shocked the world Saturday by showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa among likely voters. If Harris really has enough momentum to win deep-red Iowa, that could put her in landslide win territory in the Electoral College.

I don't know about all that. I'm not a qualified election forecaster — maybe I should have noted that at the top of the column? — but I do subscribe to Nate Silver's Substack. To the extent that there's a takeaway from the Iowa poll, I think it suggests Harris has a strong chance of over-performing her polls across the Midwest. She especially seems to be trending well among white voters, while Trump is gaining in places where extra votes won't help him, such as New York.

My read on the polls and forecasts is that Harris will hold the so-called Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and that's going to be enough for her to win the election.

If I'm wrong, well, then at least let the record show that I own my takes.

Contact James Briggs at 317-444-4732 or james.briggs@indystar.com. Follow him on X and Threads at @JamesEBriggs.