Argentina vs. Colombia 2024 Copa America final odds: Lionel Messi ...

4 days ago

The Athletic

Argentina vs Colombia 2024 Copa America final odds Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi and Argentina are favored to win the 2024 Copa America final against Colombia, which would be the team's third trophy in a row.

The Copa América final features two teams entering on streaks. Argentina has won its last two major tournaments as the reigning champion of both this tournament and the World Cup. Colombia has gone 28 matches unbeaten, an all-time run for Los Cafeteros.

Argentina is favored to continue its streak Sunday in South Florida. Lionel Messi’s team is a commanding -175 in the odds to win the 2024 Copa América.

If Argentina wins, it will be a third straight trophy for a national team, and Messi more specifically, that not long ago was derided for not winning anything despite loads of talent. The last two triumphs have reframed what has been a ridiculous run for La Albiceleste. Starting with the 2014 World Cup, Argentina has made the semifinals in seven of the last eight major tournaments. The lone early exit was the 2018 World Cup, which while disappointing also saw Argentina’s two losses come to the two finalists (France and Croatia).

This is Argentina’s sixth final since 2014. Four of the previous five went to extra time and three went to penalties. The 2021 Copa América final, which Argentina won 1-0 against Brazil, was the only final in that run decided in regular time.

Despite how heavily favored Argentina is in the odds, Colombia will not be an easy team to beat. Colombia’s 28-match unbeaten run includes wins against Germany, Brazil (in a World Cup qualifier), Spain and now Uruguay in the semifinal of this tournament.

The team has not lost with Argentine manager Néstor Lorenzo in charge, but Argentina was also the last team to beat Colombia. That was in a World Cup qualifier on Feb. 1, 2022. Colombia last beat Argentina more than five years ago in the group stage of the 2019 Copa América.

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All odds from BetMGM. Odds to win or draw are over 90 minutes.

Argentina vs. Colombia

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Sunday

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Odds to win trophy: Argentina -175, Colombia +125

Argentina has the best defensive record of this tournament, allowing just one goal in five matches. That one goal against Ecuador was nearly fatal. Kevin Rodríguez’s 92nd-minute goal sent that quarterfinal to penalties, where Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez did his thing and made two stops to save Argentina.

Meanwhile, Colombia has scored the most goals in this tournament with 12 through five matches. Four players have scored twice (Jhon Córdoba, Luis Díaz, Jefferson Lerma and Daniel Muñoz) for Colombia, although Muñoz will be suspended after being sent off for getting two yellow cards in the semifinal win against Uruguay.

With those two opposites going head-to-head, what style will win out in this match? Will Colombia be able to make this match a more open affair like many of the team’s previous matches in this tournament? Will Argentina maintain control as the patient, defensively solid team it has been so far?

The goal total odds put it somewhere in the middle with over 1.5 goals listed at -190 odds. For context, the Spain-England Euro 2024 final has -210 odds for over 1.5 total goals, showing that match is expected to be slightly higher-scoring.

Argentina’s Lautaro Martínez has four goals this tournament, making him the overwhelming favorite to finish as the golden boot winner.

Argentina is seeking its 16th Copa América title, which would break a tie with Uruguay for the most all-time. Even with that record, Argentina has just one Copa América title in the last 30 years.

Colombia has won Copa América once. That was in 2001 when Colombia hosted the tournament and Argentina did not participate. With that context, a win on Sunday could be the greatest achievement in the history of the Colombian national team.

No matter what happens, it’s likely to be a heck of a party in Miami. South Florida is home to significant populations from both countries.